基于倾向得分匹配法分析生态政策对农户收入的影响——宁夏盐池县“退牧还草”案例研究

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00100

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为定量评价"退牧还草"生态政策对北方农牧交错区农户收入的影响,采用倾向得分匹配法处理样本内生性问题,对宁夏盐池县进行了实证分析。结果表明:在剥离社会经济因素的影响下,"退牧还草"生态政策的实施对农户养殖业收入有提升作用,这种政策实施收益是通过农户生产方式转变的选择来实现的,但政策实施对种植业和非农收入的影响并不明显。通过匹配分析发现,近几年农户总收入的增加并不能仅归因于生态政策的实施,而是社会经济发展、粮食价格变化、思想观念转变和通货膨胀等多种因素综合影响的结果。

关键词: 倾向得分匹配法, 退牧还草, 政策评估, 农户收入

Abstract:

In order to quantitatively evaluate the effect of ecological policy of Returning Grazing Land to Grassland on farmers' income in the farming-pastoral zone on the north of China, Yanchi Country is selected as the study area. We empirically analyzed the effects of ecological policy of "Returning Grazing Land to Grassland" on farmers' income by using the propensity score-matching method to deal with the endogenous problem of sample. The result showed that the "Returning Grazing Land to Grassland" can improve the farming income under the condition of ignoring social and economic elements, and the farmers gained the implementation of the policy of income by changing their mode of production. But the policy show little effects on planting and non-agricultural income. It was founded out that the increase of farmers' income was attributed to the comprehensive effects of the social and economic development, the price change of foods, the transformation of minds and the inflation, but not the implementation of the ecological policy. This research can provide theoretical basis for the implementation and improvement of Returning Grazing Land to Grassland policy in Yanchi and other similar areas.

Key words: Propensity Score Matching method, Returning Grazing Land to Grassland, policy evaluation, household income

中图分类号:

C912.3

安祎玮, 周立华, 陈勇. 基于倾向得分匹配法分析生态政策对农户收入的影响——宁夏盐池县“退牧还草”案例研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2016, 36(3): 823-829.

An Yiwei, Zhou Lihua, Chen Yong. Effects of Ecological Policy on Farmers' Income Based on the Propensity Score Matching Method: a case study of Returning Grazing Land to Grassland in Yanchi, Ningxia[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2016, 36(3): 823-829.

参考文献

[1] 李善堂,张榕,阿不满.退牧还草对农牧民收入影响的思考[J].草业科学,2005,22(3):68-72.
[2] 王小鹏,赵成章,高福元,等.退牧还草政策下农牧民家庭收入影响因素的分位回归分析[J].中国草地学报,2011,33(2):105-110.
[3] 李文卿,胡自治,龙瑞军,等.甘肃省退牧还草实施绩效、存在问题和对策[J].草业科学,2007,24(1):1-6.
[4] 张凯,郭妮,王润元,等.甘肃省天然草地退牧还草工程效益遥感监测研究[J].草业科学,2008,25(7):29-35.
[5] 刘振恒,武高林,杨林平,等.黄河上游首区湿地保护区退牧还草效益分析[J].草原与草坪,2009(3):69-72.
[6] 杜姗姗,蔡建明,刘彦随.河南省县域农民纯收入增长差异及其演进格局分析[J].经济地理,2010,30(12):2091-2096.
[7] 赵成章,王小鹏,周伟,等.退牧还草区农牧民家庭收入结构转型效益[J].经济地理,2011,31(3):470-475.
[8] 陈玉萍,吴海涛,陶大云,等.基于倾向得分匹配法分析农业技术采用对农户收入的影响——以滇西南农户改良陆稻技术采用为例[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(17):3667-3676.
[9] 谢旭轩,马训舟,张世秋.应用匹配倍差法评估退耕还林政策[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2011,47(4):759-767.
[10] Yue L Q.Statistical and regulatory issues with the application of propensity score analysis to nonrandomized medical device clinical studies[J].Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics,2007,17:1-13.
[11] Yang Y,Sun B P,Hasi E,et al.Impacts of land use change on ecosystem service value in Yanchi County of Ningxia[J].Agricultural Science & Technology,2013,14(11):1687-1692.
[12] 周立华,朱艳玲,黄玉邦.禁牧政策对北方农牧交错区草地沙漠化[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(2):308-313.
[13] 龚大鑫,金文杰,窦学诚,等.牧户对退牧还草工程的行为响应及其影响因素研究——以高寒牧区玛曲县为例[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(4):1169-1175.
[14] Rosenbaum P R,Rubin D B.The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects[J].Biometrica,1983,701:41-55.
[15] Heckman J,Ichimura H,Todd P.Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator:evidence from evaluating a job training program[J].Review of Economic Studies,1997,64:605-654.
[16] Caliendo M,Kopeinig S.Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Mating[R].Bonn,Germany:IZA,2005.
[17] Smith J,Todd P.Does matching overcome LaLonde's critique of non-experimental estimators[J].Journal of Econometrics,2005,125(1/2):205-353.
[18] Heckman J,Ichimura H,Smith J,et al.Characterizing selection bias using experimental data[J].Econometrica,1998,66(5):1017-1098.
[19] 张秀娟,周立华,陈勇.沙漠化逆转生态经济效益的非市场价值评估——以宁夏盐池县为例[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(1):271-280.
[20] 吴建.政治资本对农民收入影响研究——基于倾向得分匹配法[D]济南:山东大学,2013.