气候变化对石羊河流域农户生计资本的影响

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00050

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化是全球变化的核心问题,其影响已经深入到人类生活的各个领域,引起了国际社会的广泛关注。明确气候变化对农户生计的影响以及农户适应气候变化的策略及其需求,是区域可持续发展中急需解决的关键问题。本文基于石羊河流域1963-2012年气候变化和493个农户的入户调查数据,分析了气候变化对石羊河流域不同福利水平农户生计资本的影响及农户适应气候变化的策略和需求。结果表明:(1)流域上游气候呈显著的暖湿化趋势,中游和下游气候暖湿化趋势不显著。(2)气候变化对中游和下游农户生计资本的影响均大于上游农户,其中,对中等福利群体的生计资本影响最显著,对高福利群体的影响次之,对低福利群体的影响最小。农户自然资本受气候变化的影响最强,物质资本和社会资本受气候变化的影响最弱。(3)流域内农户均倾向选择减少消费和外出务工来适应气候变化,其中,选择减少消费的农户比重最高,选择外出务工和向亲属或政府求助的比重次之。高福利群体中选择减少消费和外出务工策略的比重较高,中等福利群体中选择求助亲属或政府策略的比重较高。(4)流域内农户对信息和资金的需求均较显著,其中,对信息的需求最强烈,对资金、技术和劳动力素质的需求次之。高福利群体和低福利群体在就业信息方面的需求最强烈,中等福利群体在农牧业市场信息方面的需求最强烈。

关键词: 气候变化, 生计资本, 适应策略, 农户, 石羊河流域

Abstract:

Climate change, the core issue of global change, has aroused wide spread international attention. Its influence involves every field of human life. It is vital to understand the influence of climate change on farmers' livelihood and the demand in the process of adaptation to climate change so as to ensure regional sustainable development. Using the meteorological data during 1963-2012 and the household survey data from 493 farmers in the Shiyanghe River Basin, we analyzed the influence of climate change on livelihood capital of farmers in different welfare level and the demand of the farmers in the process of adaptation to climate change. The results indicate that: (1) The climate change of the Shiyanghe River Basin present a trend of wet and warm, the upstream perform a significant trend while the trend at the middle and lower reaches is not obvious. (2) The impacts of climate change on the farmers livelihood at the middle and lower reaches are greater than the upstream farmers. And the impacts of climate change on the moderate welfare group is the most significant, secondly is the generous welfare group, the low welfare group is the weakest; of which, the natural capital is the strongest affected by climate change, material capital and social capital are the weakest affected. (3) Farmers of the whole basin are inclined to choose "reduce consumption" and "go out to work" to adapt to climate change, of which, selecting the "reduce consumption" has the highest percentage, followed by the percentage is choosing "go out to work" and "seek help from relatives or government". Generous welfare groups have the highest percentage in selecting the strategy of "reduce consumption", medium welfare groups has the highest percentage in choosing the strategy of "seek help from relatives or government". (4) Farmers' demand for information and money in adapting to climate change is the most significant in the whole basin, of which the demand for information is the most, next is the demand for capital, technology and the quality of the labor force .The demand of the generous welfare group and the low welfare group are very strong in terms of employment information, and the needs of the middle welfare group is very high in in terms of agricultural and livestock market information.

Key words: climate change, livelihood capital, adaptive strategy, farmers, Shiyanghe River Basin

中图分类号:

C912.3

张钦, 赵雪雁, 王亚茹, 雒丽. 气候变化对石羊河流域农户生计资本的影响[J]. 中国沙漠, 2016, 36(3): 814-822.

Zhang Qin, Zhao Xueyan, Wang Yaru, Luo Li. Impacts of Climate Change on Farmers Livelihood Capital in the Shiyanghe River Basin of China[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2016, 36(3): 814-822.

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