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中国沙漠 ›› 2001, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (s1): 48-52.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑河干流洪水预报模型研究

胡兴林1, 郝庆凡2   

  1. 1. 甘肃省水文水资源勘测局, 甘肃兰州 730000;
    2. 黄委会黑河流域管理局, 甘肃兰州 730030
  • 收稿日期:2001-02-15 修回日期:2001-06-20 出版日期:2001-12-31 发布日期:2001-12-31
  • 作者简介:胡兴林(1960-),男(汉族),甘肃榆中县人,工程师,主要从事水文测验和水文预报研究。
  • 基金资助:
    甘肃省水利厅2000年水利科研推广项目"甘肃省河流洪水连续演算预报模型的研究和应用"资助

Flood Forecast Model of the Main Stream of the Heihe River

HU Xing-ling1, HAO Qing-fan2   

  1. 1. Gansu Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Heihe Basin Administrative Office of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Committee, Lanzhou 730030, China
  • Received:2001-02-15 Revised:2001-06-20 Online:2001-12-31 Published:2001-12-31

摘要: 黑河干流上游区水文站点稀少,区间部分支流洪水过程无法控制,中游区河流沿程大量引水灌溉、取水口甚多用水量无法获得,使得以水量平衡原理为基础的洪水演算方法难以应用。针对上述情况,笔者应用系统水文模型理论并对其进行了改进。通过引入系统存贮变量,建立了一个新的黑河干流洪水预报模型-河道洪水演算模型。经1996年,1998年两次特大洪水试报检验,结果表明该模型的预报精度较高,对黑河干流防洪减灾、水利工程科学管理以及水资源优化配置具有重要的作用。

关键词: 黑河干流, 洪水, 预报模型

Abstract: Heihe River is a secondary greater inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China. Its main stream, with a length of 821 km, originates in the Qilian Mountain and flows through the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province and enters into the western part of Inner Mongolia plateau. Because the hydrometric stations are few in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin, the floods in the reaches can not be controlled. In the middle reaches area many water formation for irrigation of the river also can not be obtained. It is very difficulty to put it into use the usual floods forecast methods that based on water quantity balance principle. So the system hydrology model theory is improved and introduced into the flood forecast in the main stream of the Heihe River. A new floods forecast model called river way flood figures model has been presented. The model calibration accuracy reaches 95% or more. The application in the forecast of two strong storm floods in 1996 and 1998 showed that the maximum prediction error was -11.1%. These will play significant role in the floods prevention and disaster reduction of the Heihe River, in the scientific management of the hydraulic structure and in the optimal disposition of water resources.

Key words: the main stream of the Heihe River, flood, forecast model

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