关键词: 沙漠化, 驱动因素, 累加效应, 内蒙古多伦县

Abstract: Taking Duolun County, Inner Mongolia as the study area, the paper analyzed the cumulative impact of driving forces to desertification with moving-average method and grey relational analysis method. The results showed that the cumulative impact of human activities on desertification was in relatively short-time scale, and the cumulative impact of natural activities was in middle-short time scale. For details, the accumulative impact of annual mean temperature came to the maximum in the third year, the accumulative impact of annual mean precipitation was the most significant in the fourth year, the impact of evaporation and wind speed was gradually increased with the time scale increasing and was the most significant in the tenth year; the impact of population reached the maximum in the first year, that of the farmland area gradually decreased in the duration of one to ten years; the impact of grain output reached the maximum in the fifth year; the impact of GDP was in the maximum in the second year; the impact of total number of livestock was the most significant in the second year. The principal causes of the cumulative impact of cropland index and carrying capacity on desertification is the increasing pressure on environment and resource due to increasing population.

Key words: desertification, driving factors, cumulative impacts, Duolun country of Inner Mongolia