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中国沙漠  2020, Vol. 40 Issue (5): 32-41    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2020.00042
    
甘肃省张掖市甘州区村镇水资源承载力评价
王肖波1,2()
1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity at village scale in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin
Xiaobo Wang1,2()
1.Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China
2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
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摘要:

开展水资源承载力的评价应用,有助于实现缺水和水资源管理问题地区的可持续发展。基于乡村振兴战略目标的要求,解析水资源承载力的内涵,结合研究区域实际情况,在村镇尺度辨明生产兴旺、生活富裕和生态宜居等3个结构性成分及相互之间驱动与恢复的功能联结,构建包含23条指标的干旱区村镇水资源承载力评价指标集。综合Likert标度、模糊综合评价和熵权法,通过参与式农村评估方法获取当地居民评判结果,从生产、生活和生态等3方面评价了甘肃省张掖市甘州区6个乡镇12个自然村的水资源承载力。结果表明:在生产方面,当地处于较低水平,生计的单一和低回报率导致较高的水资源依赖性;生活方面处于中等水平,整体富裕度不高,社会资本薄弱;生态方面处于良好水平。

关键词: 村镇尺度水资源承载力乡村振兴模糊综合评价黑河流域    
Abstract:

It is beneficial for the sustainable development of regions in troubles with water scarcity or water resource management to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity. Targeted in revitalizing the countryside, the connotation of rural water resources carrying capacity has been deconstructed into three components, which are production, lives and ecology. And the functional connections of them are both driving forces and resilience between each other. Then, the evaluation indicator set of the rural water resources carrying capacity is proposed in production, lives and ecology aspects with 7, 9 and 7 indexes, respectively. According to the indicator set, a questionnaire for the villages in the middle reaches of Heihe River has been developed. Using the questionnaire, an evaluation data set of 12 villages has been obtained by participatory rural assessment method and Likert scale in July, 2019. Thus, the final evaluation result of the local water resources carrying capacity has been worked out by combining fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and entropy weight method. The results show that: (i) the production capacity is too poor to improve the residents’ lives, and a single and low return rate livelihood leads to higher water resource dependence; (ii) the lives of the local residents are somewhat poor, low in affluence and weak in social capital; (iii) while the ecology scores in the good level.

Key words: village scale    water resources carrying capacity    rural revitalization    fuzzy comprehensive evaluation    Heihe River Basin
收稿日期: 2020-03-04 出版日期: 2020-09-28
ZTFLH:  TV213.4  
基金资助: 国家重点研发计划专项课题(2018YFD1100102)
作者简介: 王肖波(1988—), 男, 浙江宁海人, 工程师, 博士研究生, 主要从事可持续发展研究。E-mail: wangxiaobo@lzb.ac.cn
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引用本文:

王肖波. 甘肃省张掖市甘州区村镇水资源承载力评价[J]. 中国沙漠, 2020, 40(5): 32-41.

Xiaobo Wang. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity at village scale in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin. Journal of Desert Research, 2020, 40(5): 32-41.

链接本文:

http://www.desert.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2020.00042        http://www.desert.ac.cn/CN/Y2020/V40/I5/32

图1  张掖市甘州区调查点位置示意图
图2  村镇水资源承载力的结构性解析与功能联系
目标层指标指标含义属性
生产兴旺C1生产用水利用效率每单位生产所需用水的量预期性
C2农产品单产水平每亩耕地或单位投入的产量预期性
C3设施农业面积比例节水灌溉面积或集约化养殖比预期性
C4劳动生产率家庭单位劳动力投入产出情况预期性
C5家庭可支配收入水平家庭年度收入情况预期性
C6生计途径多样性家庭从事生计的种类诊断性
C7现代化生产力水平家庭人力资本、生产资料等情况诊断性
生活富裕C8恩格尔系数反映居民生活的富裕度预期性
C9政府利民措施情况乡村政策及其贯彻程度预期性
C10村镇居民生活水平居民当前生活的条件及其幸福感预期性
C11居民节水意识居民对生产生活用水的态度和行为预期性
C12村镇领导作为村镇领导的引领作用及居民满意度诊断性
C13区域经济发展水平所在地区的经济建设情况诊断性
C14社会资本家庭社会关系网络及其稳定性诊断性
C15邻里和谐度集体行为的有效性测度诊断性
C16乡村依恋反映乡村聚落演变和区域发展趋势诊断性
生态宜居C17水资源量可用水资源的丰度、供给度预期性
C18水环境情况开放水体的质量,居民饮用水质预期性
C19人均耕地面积土地资源的供给量预期性
C20耕地肥力水平土地资源的质量预期性
C21通达性交通便捷以及道路硬化水平预期性
C22资源短缺应对用水政策、水利设施和地下水安全诊断性
C23环境保护污水处理、环境整治及农药化肥规定诊断性
表1  乡村振兴目标要求下的村镇水资源承载力评价指标集
指标目标题目举例语义偏好
C1用水效率高Q3生产/灌溉用水没有浪费,使用效率高

1. 非常不同意

2. 不同意

3. 可不同意也可同意

4. 同意

5. 非常同意

C4劳动生产率高

Q9从事生计(种地、养殖)自己家里能忙过来

Q12我们家种地/养殖挺挣钱的

C5家庭收入高

Q12我们家种地/养殖挺挣钱的

Q18我们家这几年的收成挺好的

C10生活条件好Q13我们家的生活条件比较好
C15邻里团结Q16村里人,尤其邻居,大家很团结,相处和睦
C23环保措施到位

Q23村里(上级)对施肥、喷洒农药等有管控

Q24村里(上级)对生活污水排放有规定

Q25村里的废弃物、垃圾已实现统一(分类)处理

表2  村镇水资源承载力评价调查问卷题目示例
变量内容占比/%变量内容占比/%
性别77.92受教育程度小学及以下46.04
22.08中学或中专52.08
年龄<353.96大专及以上1.88
35~4921.04家庭年收入/万元<112.08
50~5936.041~331.04
60~6922.923~528.96
≥7016.04>527.92
表3  调查问卷题基本信息
村镇编码LQJSJJJXNYXSXCXZSNSJSSDS平均值
C14.383.754.153.984.334.504.484.384.384.384.434.354.29
C24.033.903.183.554.083.934.154.053.853.733.934.033.86
C34.253.934.234.384.334.384.404.383.654.354.533.434.18
C42.332.332.252.032.282.152.302.232.382.502.452.082.27
C52.532.502.352.552.732.602.532.732.582.702.602.552.58
C62.682.181.731.802.132.432.331.981.902.002.452.082.14
C74.554.434.554.634.504.484.404.554.484.504.554.484.51
C81.801.951.781.851.651.782.081.701.551.581.751.451.74
C93.904.084.004.053.983.954.004.033.983.983.833.783.96
C103.383.253.353.334.153.783.633.603.633.183.683.453.53
C114.684.604.654.654.804.784.754.734.634.654.604.704.68
C123.583.554.082.884.233.253.883.083.233.303.333.083.45
C134.584.554.584.604.554.654.684.584.654.584.634.554.60
C142.031.651.701.481.781.801.631.751.551.531.781.551.68
C154.053.933.454.133.583.983.933.584.003.983.884.083.88
C163.633.252.833.003.183.383.453.183.403.653.382.953.27
C174.434.234.084.304.704.434.384.484.354.354.454.304.37
C183.733.754.033.883.833.703.783.703.883.803.803.933.81
C194.103.503.303.434.434.384.304.434.084.134.004.204.02
C204.153.983.803.633.734.083.683.733.203.484.003.503.74
C214.684.554.504.033.184.534.434.684.534.434.634.584.39
C223.383.133.533.183.853.203.303.753.553.333.503.583.44
C233.403.033.083.133.453.083.282.502.883.353.032.983.10
表4  指标集的统计均值
指标信息熵权重指标信息熵权重
C10.60580.0437C130.41920.0644
C20.68260.0352C140.53870.0511
C30.66020.0377C150.77450.0250
C40.64090.0398C160.67940.0355
C50.60440.0439C170.43340.0628
C60.73650.0292C180.49120.0564
C70.43900.0622C190.62730.0413
C80.70390.0328C200.77890.0245
C90.66160.0375C210.56790.0479
C100.62330.0418C220.57080.0476
C110.38790.0678C230.54350.0506
C120.80780.0213
表5  指标集的熵和权重
村镇生产兴旺生活富裕生态宜居总评分排名
LQ1.05721.36791.31563.74071
JS0.98981.33131.23853.559610
JJ0.97811.31871.25123.548011
JX0.99601.30961.22093.526512
NY1.04721.37821.29483.72023
XS1.04821.36801.29183.70805
XC1.05111.37921.29003.72032
XZ1.04711.32951.29273.66936
SN1.00531.33341.26963.60838
SJ1.04221.32081.28273.64587
SS1.06791.34271.29823.70884
DS0.99401.29661.29053.58109
表6  甘州区村镇水资源承载力模糊综合评价结果
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