中国西南地区农业干旱灾害风险空间特征

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00104

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 21世纪,中国西南地区干旱灾害农业综合损失率远超过全国平均水平,给人类生活带来了巨大的风险。本文依据灾害系统理论,利用遥感、气象和地理信息数据与技术建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性等4个因子的风险指数和模型,基于4个因子建立农业干旱灾害综合风险评估模型,在GIS平台下计算了干旱灾害综合风险指数。结果表明:西南地区干旱灾害风险格局模式具有明显的地带性和复杂性,全区并不一致,高风险区主要位于四川盆地和云贵川三省交界处,北部高于南部,东部高于西部,从西南到东北依次增加。随着干旱灾害综合风险指数的变化,干旱灾害风险的模式具有不同的格局。西南地区干旱灾害风险主要受复杂地形和多样气候带的影响,还受植被盖度、农业经济水平、土壤状况等地理环境影响,同时,喀斯特地貌和相对薄弱的抗旱能力也使得西南地区农业干旱灾害风险较高。

关键词: 干旱灾害, 风险评估, GIS, 遥感, 土壤湿度, 层次分析法

Abstract: In the 21 century, the agricultural comprehensive lose of drought disaster in Southwestern China exceeds largely the national averaged level. In this paper, based on the metrological data, geographical data, soil data and remote sensing data, we built the comprehensive risk assessment indexes and model of the agricultural drought disaster, including hazard factor risk, the vulnerability of the pregnant disaster environment, the sensibility and exposure of the disaster-bearing objects, and the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation. The results indicated that the comprehensive risk of the agriculture drought disaster was obviously zonal and complicated in Southwestern China. The extremely high risk region lied mainly in the eastern part and north part of Southwestern China, and increased from southwest to northeast. The drought risk index could well express the drought disaster risk in Southwestern China. The pattern of the drought disaster risk changed with the drought risk index. The hazard factor risk, vulnerability of the pregnant environment, sensibility and exposure of the disaster-bearing objects, capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation of the drought disaster risk all controlled the drought disaster risk pattern in Southwestern China.

Key words: drought disaster, risk assessment, GIS, remote sensing, soil humidity, AHP

中图分类号:

S423

韩兰英, 张强, 马鹏里, 贾建英, 姚玉璧, 成青燕, 郭铌, 王劲松, 王莺. 中国西南地区农业干旱灾害风险空间特征[J]. 中国沙漠, 2015, 35(4): 1015-1023.

Han Lanying, Zhang Qiang, Ma Pengli, Jia Jianying, Yao Yubi, Cheng Qingyan, Guo Ni, Wang Jinsong, Wang Ying. Spatial Characteristics of Comprehensive Risk of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southwestern China[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2015, 35(4): 1015-1023.

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