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中国沙漠 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 211-217.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

甘肃黄土高原春旱的气候特征及预测方法

郭江勇, 李耀辉, 王文, 叶燕华   

  1. 中国气象局 兰州干旱气象研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730020
  • 收稿日期:2002-11-25 修回日期:2003-03-24 出版日期:2004-04-20 发布日期:2004-04-20
  • 作者简介:郭江勇(1960-),男(汉族),甘肃宁县人,副研究员,主要从事干旱气候变化规律和预测方法研究。E-mail:qxjgjy@sohu.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(40205014)

Climatic Characteristics and Forecasting Method of Spring Drought in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province

GUO Jiang-yong, LI Yao-hui, WANG Wen, YE Yan-hua   

  1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Received:2002-11-25 Revised:2003-03-24 Online:2004-04-20 Published:2004-04-20

摘要: 利用甘肃黄土高原55个气象站在1968-2000年间的春季降水、气温资料, 计算了春季干湿指数, 划分了春旱标准, 用REOF方法进行了气候分区, 分析了其时空分布特征和变化规律, 计算了其与欧亚500hPa高度场、赤道北太平洋海温和高原加热场的相关关系, 建立了甘肃黄土高原春旱的均生函数预测模型。结果表明, 干旱有三个高发区, 频率为36%~57%, 约2~3年一遇, 且有增加的趋势。春旱与当年高原500hPa高度场、赤道北太平洋海温及上年盛夏高原加热场呈正相关, 与前期冬季高原加热场呈负相关, 所建立的预报模型有一定的预报能力。

关键词: 甘肃黄土高原, 春旱, 时空分布, 相关关系, 预测模型

Abstract: The precipitation and temperature data at 55 observational stations from 1968 to 2000 have been used to calculate the spring drought index and set up the criterion of spring drought. Further, we have divided the climate regions on Loess Plateau with REOF method, have analyzed the spatial and temporal features of spring drought, have established the correlation of spring drought with 500 hPa height field over Asia and Europe, sea temperature of North Pacific near equator, and heating field on Qinghai-xizang Plateau. Finally, the forecasting model of Mean Generation Function is formulated for spring drought of Loess Plateau in Gansu Province. There are three high-frequently drought-occurred regions, the frequency are between 36%~57%, about once per 2 to 3 years, but it tends to increase. The spring drought has positive correlation with the 500 hPa height field, the sea temperature of North Pacific near equator in the same year and the heating field in last summer; while has negative correlation with Plateau heating field in prophase winter. The forecasting model has some ability to predict the spring drought.

Key words: Loess plateau in Gansu Province, spring drought, spatial and temporal features, correlation, forecasting model

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