中国沙漠 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 315-320.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00226

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇


宿兴涛1, 张志标1, 欧磊2   

  1. 1. 北京应用气象研究所, 北京 100029;
    2. 61741部队, 北京 100094
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-29 修回日期:2015-10-13 出版日期:2017-03-20 发布日期:2017-03-20
  • 作者简介:宿兴涛(1984-),男,山东聊城人,博士,工程师,主要从事气溶胶与大气环境研究。
  • 基金资助:


Prediction on Dust in Spring during 2015-2100 over East Asia under AlB Scenario

Su Xingtao1, Zhang Zhibiao1, Ou Lei2   

  1. 1. Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Beijing 100029, China;
    2. 61741 Troops of PLA, Beijing 100094, China
  • Received:2015-06-29 Revised:2015-10-13 Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-20



关键词: A1B情景, 区域气候模式, 沙尘, 未来预测


A regional climate model RegCM4 coupled with an on-line dust module is used to predict the future trend of East Asian dust in spring from 2015 to 2100. Based on the simulation results, there generally exists obvious oscillation characteristics of the dust emission flux (DEF) and dust deposition flux (DDF). The model also captures the significant fluctuating and descending trend of the dust optical depth (DOD) over East Asian dust sources. At the same time, the DOD and DDF appear significant fluctuating and ascending trend over downstream areas of dust sources. Only the DEF over the Taklimakan Desert and its circumjacent areas presents significant fluctuating and descending trend over all East Asian dust sub-sources. The maximal falling velocity of DOD occurs over Saryesik-Atyrau Desert and Hulun Buir Desert with the values up to -2.8%/10a and -2.3/10a respectively. In addition, the rising velocity of DOD is 1.5%/10a over southern North China, Huanghuai Area, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and eastern and southern Chinese offshore. The significant rise (1.9%/10a) of DDF may do harm to the marine environment of our country. Compared to the maximum surface wind speed for DOD, the mean surface wind speed especially maximum surface wind speed are the main factors of the DEF.

Key words: AlB scenario, regional climate model, dust, future prediction