1958-2016年呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗气温和降水变化特征

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2017.00069

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化是影响草原区植被与环境状况的重要因素。利用呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗1958-2016年的气温和降水数据资料，采用线性倾向估计法、累积距平分析法、M-K检验法和Morlet小波分析等方法，从不同时间序列上，对该地区近59年的气候变化趋势、极端气候以及突变现象进行分析。结果表明：年平均气温以0.354℃/10a的速率上升，上升趋势显著；四季平均气温均呈现增温趋势，其中春季增温趋势最大；1985-1986年发生了由低温到高温的突变；研究区年平均气温存在11 a的强显著周期。研究区年降水量整体以8.68 mm/10a的速率呈下降趋势，变化趋势不显著；降水集中在夏季（6-8月），占全年降水量的72.9%，7月降水量最大，有效降水日数最多；1961-1962年和1981-1982年降水发生突变；极端降水指标中日最大降水量、连续5 d最大降水量、强降水量、极强降水量、强降水比率、连续无雨日数、零降水量日数均呈现递减趋势，仅降水强度呈递增趋势，变化趋势均不显著；Morlet小波分析表明研究区年降水量存在52 a的强显著周期。新巴尔虎右旗近59 a气候总体呈现干旱化趋势。

关键词: 气温, 降水, 突变检验, 小波分析, 新巴尔虎右旗

Abstract: Climate change is an important factor affecting vegetation and environmental conditions in grassland areas. Based on the temperature and precipitation from 1958 to 2016 in the Xin Barag Right Banner, the methods including linear inclination estimation, cumulative anomaly analysis, M-K test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze and study the trend of climate change, extreme climate and mutation in this region during 1958-2016 from different time sequence. The main results of this research are as follows:the average annual temperature increases at the rate of 0.354℃/10a in study area, and the rising trend is obvious. The average temperature of the four seasons is warming trend,especially in the spring.. The mutation from low temperature to high temperature occurred in 1985-1986. The annual mean temperature of the study area has a strong period of 11 a. The annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 8.68 mm/10a, and the trend is not significant. The precipitation in the study area is mainly concentrated in the summer, and the proportion of precipitation in June-August is 72.9%. There have largest precipitation and highest effective precipitation days in July The precipitation changed abruptly in 1961-1962 and 1981-1982. The maximum precipitation, the maximum precipitation for 5 consecutive days, the heavy rainfall, the strong precipitation, the strong precipitation ratio, the number of continuous rain days and the zero precipitation days all showed decreasing trend, only the precipitation intensity showed not obvious increasing trend; Morlet wavelet analysis shows that there is a significant period of 52 a for annual precipitation in the study area. For this region,the climate of Xin Barag Right Banner area showed a trend of drought during the past 59 years.

Key words: temperature, precipitation, abrupt change test, wavelet analysis, Xin Barag Right Banner

中图分类号:

S330.3

邸择雷, 乌云娜, 宋彦涛, 霍光伟, 张凤杰, 王晓光, 张小红. 1958-2016年呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗气温和降水变化特征[J]. 中国沙漠, 2017, 37(5): 1006-1015.

Di Zelei, Wuyunna, Song Yantao, Huo Guangwei, Zhang Fengjie, Wang Xiaoguang, Zhang Xiaohong. Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in the Xin Barag Right Banner of the Hulunbeier Grassland during 1958-2016[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2017, 37(5): 1006-1015.

参考文献

[1] IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[2] 秦大河,Thomas Stocker.259名作者和TSU(驻伯尔尼和北京).IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[3] 陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮,等.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报,2004(5):634-646.
[4] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005(6):942-956.
[5] 左洪超,吕世华,胡隐樵.中国近50年气温及降水量的变化趋势分析[J].高原气象,2004(2):238-244.
[6] 丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2006(1):3-8+50.
[7] 王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢,等.近百年中国年气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998(4):9-18.
[8] 董满宇,吴正方.近50年来东北地区气温变化时空特征分析[J].资源科学,2008(7):1093-1099.
[9] 曲学斌,吴昊.呼伦贝尔市53年气候变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2014(2):178-182.
[10] 神祥金,周道玮,李飞,等.中国草原区植被变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理科学,2015(5):622-629.
[11] 梁艳,干珠扎布,张伟娜,等.气候变化对中国草原生态系统影响研究综述[J].中国农业科技导报,2014(2):1-8.
[12] 龙慧灵,李晓兵,黄玲梅,等.内蒙古草原生态系统净初级生产力及其与气候的关系[J].植物生态学报,2010(7):781-791.
[13] 韩芳,牛建明,刘朋涛,等.气候变化对内蒙古荒漠草原牧草气候生产力的影响[J].中国草地学报,2010(5):57-65.
[14] 何晓蕾,赵萌莉,刘通,等.新巴尔虎右旗草地生态系统的服务功能[J].草业科学,2013(10):1656-1663.
[15] Pimentel D,Harvey C,Resosudarmo P,et al.Environmental and economic costs of soil erosion and conservation benefits[J].Science,1995,267:1117-1123.
[16] 白美兰,郝润全,沈建国.近46 a气候变化对呼伦湖区域生态环境的影响[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(1):101-107.
[17] 韩邦帅,薛娴,王涛,等.沙漠化与气候变化互馈机制研究进展[J].中国沙漠,2008(3):410-416.
[18] 刘树林,王涛,屈建军,等.中国北方草原沙漠化发展过程及其成因分析——以内蒙古苏尼特左旗为例[J].中国沙漠,2009(2):206-211+383.
[19] 赵哈林,张铜会,崔建垣,等.近40 a我国北方农牧交错区气候变化及其与土地沙漠化的关系——以科尔沁沙地为例[J].中国沙漠,2000(增刊1):2-7.
[20] 吴建国,周巧富.气候变化对6种荒漠动物分布的潜在影响[J].中国沙漠,2011(2):464-475.
[21] Parmesan C,Yohe G.A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impaces across natural systems[J].Nature,2003,421:37-42.
[22] Root T L,Price J T,Hall K R,et al.Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants[J].Nature,2003,421:57-60.
[23] Arajo M B,Pearson R G,Thuiller W,et al.Validation of species climate impacts models under climate changes[J].Global Change Biology,2005,11:1504-1513.
[24] Williams P,Hannah L,Andelman S,et al.Planning for climatechange:identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the capeproteaceae[J].Conservation Biology,2005,19(4):1063-1074.
[25] Coulston J,Riitters K H.Preserving biodiversity under cur-rent and future climates:a case study[J].Global Ecology andBiogeography,2005,14:31-38.
[26] 刘慧英,张波.浅析近50年新巴尔虎右旗气候变化特征[J].内蒙古气象,2010(1):14-16.
[27] 乌云娜,张凤杰,裴浩,等.克鲁伦河流域生长季有效温水组合对草原群落生物量的影响[J].草业学报,2012,21(2):227-232.
[28] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:43-46,49.
[29] 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[30] Gao W,Li B L.Wavelet analysis of coherent structures at the atmosphere-forest interface[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,1993,32(11):1717-1725.
[31] 胡昌华,李国华,周涛.基于MATLAB7.X的系统分析与设计——小波分析[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2008.
[32] 贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013(2):519-531.
[33] 王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海,等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004(2):228-236.
[34] 王钰,冯起.陕北地区1960-2013年极端气温指数[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1097-1105.
[35] 林婧婧,张强.中国西北地区气候态变化对极端天气监测的影响[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(6):1659-1665.
[36] 陈建宇,邵天杰,赵景波.陕西榆林地区1954-2013年极端气温变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(5):1426-1434.
[37] Karl T R,Nicholls N,G hazi A.CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes:workshop summary[J].Climatic Change,1999,42:3-7.
[38] 张顺谦,马振峰.1961-2009年四川极端强降水变化趋势与周期性分析[J].自然资源学报,2011(11):1918-1929.