中国西北干旱半干旱区近46 a秋季气候变暖分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用中国西北干旱、半干旱区137个测站，近46 a年平均地面气温资料，采用线性趋势分析、EOF、REOF、Mann-Kendall、子波分析等方法，分析了西北区秋季气温对气候变暖的响应。结果表明：①中国西北干旱、半干旱区秋季气温增温明显，近46 a增温率0.36 ℃/10a. 从1971年开始气温呈增加趋势，1988年有一次显著突变，其后达到一个更显著的增暖时期。②秋季气温标准差在青海高原西部、新疆东部—北疆和内蒙古是一个高值区。③秋季区域平均气温单调增温而无明显转型期，全区性的前10个偏热年,80%出现在1990年以后，各分区的异常偏热年，90%也出现在1990年以后；气温异常变化存在5 a左右和22 a的周期，无论从年代际的变化来看,还是从20 a以上的气候变化层次来看,振幅向高温增大，气温趋势仍在居高不下的位置。④秋季气温存在演变的地域差异，新疆区和蒙陕甘宁青区东西变化相反。⑤根据REOF分析将该区秋季气温异常细分为蒙陕甘宁区、北疆区、南疆区和高原区。西部干旱、半干旱区秋季气温的转折大致在20世纪60年代末期至70年代初期，由下降转为上升；各区秋季气温在1987—1988年发生一次突变。

关键词: 中国西北干旱, 半干旱区, 秋季气温, 气候变暖

Abstract: The monthly mean surface air temperature data recorded by 137 stations in the arid and semiarid regions of northwest China over the years from 1961 to 2006 were used to analyze the response of the autumn air temperature to climate warming by methods of linear regression analysis, multinomial fitting, EOF, REOF, Mann-Kendall, Glide T-examination, Wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis etc. The results show that ①the increasing rate of the autumn air temperature over the recent 46 years was 0.36 ℃/10a; the temperature increasing began in 1971, had a abrupt change in 1988, entered a obviously warming period since then; ②the autumn temperature standard deviation showed higher in west of the Qinghai plateau, east and north of Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia; ③the regional autumn temperature increased without obvious transition period, the first 10 hot years on entire region scale appeared after 1990 at 80% frequency, and the sub-regional abnormal hot years also appeared after 1990, with 90% frequency; there were the 5-year and 22-year periods in temperature change; the oscillation amplitude increased whether viewed from decadal variation or from more than 20-year cycle; ④the variations of the autumn air temperature were regional different, showing opposite changing grades from west to east between Xinjiang and Mongolia-Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai area; ⑤there were four subregions divided by REOF analysis on autumn abnormal temperature change, they are Mongolia-Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia subregion, north Xinjiang subregion, south Xinjiang subregion and the plateau subregion.

Key words: the arid and semiarid regions in northwest China, autumn air temperature, climate warming

中图分类号:

P467

陈少勇;郭江勇;韩通;石圆圆. 中国西北干旱半干旱区近46 a秋季气候变暖分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2009, 29(3): 544-550.

CHEN Shao-yong;GUO Jiang-yong;HAN Tong;SHI Yuan-yuan. Climate Warming of Autumn Air Temperature in Arid and Semiarid Regions in Northwest China over the Recent 46 Years[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2009, 29(3): 544-550.

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