|
|
|
| Spatial Characteristics of Comprehensive Risk of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southwestern China |
| Han Lanying1,2,3, Zhang Qiang3,4, Ma Pengli2, Jia Jianying2, Yao Yubi1, Cheng Qingyan2, Guo Ni1, Wang Jinsong1, Wang Ying1 |
1. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
2. Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730000, China;
3. College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
4. Meteorology Bureau of Gansu, Lanzhou 730020, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract In the 21 century, the agricultural comprehensive lose of drought disaster in Southwestern China exceeds largely the national averaged level. In this paper, based on the metrological data, geographical data, soil data and remote sensing data, we built the comprehensive risk assessment indexes and model of the agricultural drought disaster, including hazard factor risk, the vulnerability of the pregnant disaster environment, the sensibility and exposure of the disaster-bearing objects, and the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation. The results indicated that the comprehensive risk of the agriculture drought disaster was obviously zonal and complicated in Southwestern China. The extremely high risk region lied mainly in the eastern part and north part of Southwestern China, and increased from southwest to northeast. The drought risk index could well express the drought disaster risk in Southwestern China. The pattern of the drought disaster risk changed with the drought risk index. The hazard factor risk, vulnerability of the pregnant environment, sensibility and exposure of the disaster-bearing objects, capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation of the drought disaster risk all controlled the drought disaster risk pattern in Southwestern China.
|
|
Received: 16 June 2014
Published: 20 July 2015
|
|
|
Cite this article:
Han Lanying, Zhang Qiang, Ma Pengli, Jia Jianying, Yao Yubi, Cheng Qingyan, Guo Ni, Wang Jinsong, Wang Ying. Spatial Characteristics of Comprehensive Risk of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southwestern China. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2015, 35(4): 1015-1023.
URL:
http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00104 OR http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2015/V35/I4/1015
|
[1] American Meteorological Society.Meteorological drought policy statement[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,1997,78:847-849.
[2] Vangelis H,Tigkas D,Tsakiris G.The effect of PET method on reconnaissance drought index (RDI) calculation[J].Journal of Arid Environments,2013,88:130-140.
[3] 张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱灾害风险特征与管理[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.
[4] 国家科委,国家计委,国家经贸委自然灾害综合研究组.中国自然灾害区划研究进展[M].北京:海洋出版社,1998:76-128.
[5] Alexander D.Confronting Catastrophe[M].Oxford,UK:Oxford University Press,2000.
[6] Mechler R.Natural Disaster Risk Management and Financing Disaster Losses in Developing Countries[D].Karlsruhe,Germany:Karlsruhe University,2004.
[7] 史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6-17.
[8] Jayanthi H,Husak G J,Funk C,et al.Modeling rain-fed maize vulnerability to droughts using the standardized precipitation index from satellite estimated rainfall-Southern Malawi case study[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2013,4:71-81.
[9] Palmer W C.Meteorological Drought[R].Washington,USA:US Department of Commerce,1965:45-58.
[10] Heim R R.A review of twentieth century drought indices used in the United States[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1149-1165.
[11] Liu S, Mitchell S W,Andrew D.Multiple drought indices for agricultural drought risk assessment on the Canadian prairies[J].Journal of climatology,2012,32:1728-1739 .
[12] Mckee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Anaheim,USA:American Meteorological Society,1993:179-184.
[13] Morid S,Smakhtin V,Moghaddasi M.Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran[J].International Journal of Climatology,2007,27:971-985.
[14] Leblois A,Philippe Q.Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices:realizations,methods and research challenges[J].Meteorological Application,2013,20:1-9.
[15] Dai A G.Drought under global warming:a review[J].WIREs Climatic Change,2011,2:45-75.
[16] 张强,张良,崔显成,等.干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(7):763-778.
[17] 秦大河,陈宜瑜,李学勇,等.中国气候与环境演变:气候与环境变化的适应、减缓对策[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[18] 李茂松,李森,李育慧.中国近50年来旱灾灾情分析[J].中国农业气象,2003,24(1):7-10.
[19] 王静爱,孙恒,徐伟,等.近50年中国旱灾的时空变化[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(2):1-6.
[20] UNDRO.Mitigating Natural Disasters:Phenomena,Effects and Options.A Manual for Policy Makers and Planners[R].New York,USA:UNDRO,1991.
[21] Tsakiris G.Towards an adaptive preparedness framework for facing drought and water shortage[C]//Franco Lopez A. Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference "Drought Management:Economics of Drought and Drought Preparedness in a Climate Change Context".Istanbul,Turkey,2010:4-7.
[22] Farajalla N,Ziade R.Drought frequency under a changing climate in the Eastern Mediterranean:the Beka'a Valley,Lebanon[J].Geophysical Research Abstracts,2010,12(11):75-73.
[23] Zhang J Q.Risk assessment of drought disaster in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain,China[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2004,102:133-153.
[24] 徐新创,葛全胜,郑景云,等.区域农业干旱风险评估研究:以中国西南地区为例[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):883-890.
[25] IPCC.Climate Change 2007:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability[M].2007.
[26] 葛全胜,邹名,郑景云,等.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[27] 朱琳,叶殿秀,陈建文,等.陕西省冬小麦干旱风险分析及区划[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(2):201-206.
[28] 蒋兴文,李跃清,李春,等.四川盆地夏季水汽输送特征及其对旱涝的影响[J].高原气象,2007,26(3):476-484.
[29] 苏跃,廖婧琳,冯泽蔚,等.54年来贵州旱灾及其对粮食生产的影响[J].贵州农业科学,2008,36(1):51-53.
[30] 王积全,李维德.基于信息扩散理论的干旱区农业旱灾风险分析——以甘肃省民勤县为例[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(5):826-830.
[31] Richter G M,Semenov M A.Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales:assessing drought risks[J].Agricultural Systems,2005,84:77-97.
[32] Fabiano T,Evandro H J.The effect s of land tenure on vulnerability to droughts in Northeastern Brazil[J].Global Environmental Change,2008,18(4):575-582.
[33] 贾慧聪,王静爱.国内外不同尺度的旱灾风险评价研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(2):138-145.
[34] 张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[35] 唐明.旱灾风险分析的理论探讨[J].中国防汛抗旱,2008,(1):38-40.
[36] 单琨,刘布春,刘园,等.基于自然灾害系统理论的辽宁省玉米干旱风险分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(8):186-194.
[37] Tsakiris G,Pangalou D,Vangelis H.Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index(RDI)[J].Water Resources Management,2007,21(5):821-833.
[38] 秦越,徐翔宇,许凯,等.农业干旱灾害风险模糊评价体系及其应用[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(10):83-91.
[39] Qian W H,Shan X L,Zhu Y F.Ranking regional drought events in China for 1970-2009[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2011,28(2):310-321.
[40] 韩兰英,张强,姚玉璧,等.近60 年中国西南地区干旱灾害规律与成因[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):632-639. |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
2015, Vol. 35 
