Runoff Reconstruction for the Source of the Yangtze River over the Past 706 Years Based on Historical PDSI Dataset

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00116

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 126-135.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00116

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Runoff Reconstruction for the Source of the Yangtze River over the Past 706 Years Based on Historical PDSI Dataset

Wang Shu¹, Li Jinjian¹, Qin Ningsheng²

1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;
2. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China

Received:2018-08-09 Revised:2018-10-07 Published:2019-06-10

Abstract

Abstract: Five grid sequences near the source of the Yangtze River were selected from the reconstructed PDSI gridded datasets in the Asian monsoon region(Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas,MADA). Based on the correlation analysis between PDSI and the runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River, it was found that the first principal component (PC1) of the five grids has the largest correlation (r=0.609,N=50, α<0.001) with the average runoff in the summer (June-August). A record of summer runoff at the source of Yangtze River from 1300-2005 was then reconstructed, and the reliability of the reconstruction equation was tested by the independent verification method. As indicated by the reconstruction, 13 periods of high flow and 15 periods of low flow occurred during the previous 706 years. The longest periods of high flow occurred during 1513-1573, while the longest period of low flow occurred during 1389-1414. Wavelet analysis demonstrated that the reconstructed sequence mainly has significant periodic oscillations of 2-6 years, 10-13 years, 20-26 years, 30-50 years and 50-70 years. Correlation analysis between reconstruction and global sea surface temperature indicated that the runoff variation might be related to ENSO, AMO, NAO, PDO and so on.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the source of Yangtze River, Palmer Drought Severity Index, runoff reconstruction

CLC Number:

P333

Wang Shu, Li Jinjian, Qin Ningsheng. Runoff Reconstruction for the Source of the Yangtze River over the Past 706 Years Based on Historical PDSI Dataset[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(3): 126-135.

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Runoff Reconstruction for the Source of the Yangtze River over the Past 706 Years Based on Historical PDSI Dataset

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