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JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH  2007, Vol. 27 Issue (5): 890-896    DOI:
水文与水资源     
Research Progress on Uncertainty in Hydrologic Simulation

WU Zhen, ZHANG Shi-qiang, DING Yong-jian

Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
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Abstract  

Based on the basic characters in hydrologic simulation, the authors analyzed the causes of uncertainty widely existed in hydrologic simulation, reviewed on research progress in various hydrologic simulation uncertainty, and introduced the general flow of Bayesian Probability Hydrology Forecasting System. It has been found that the mathematical statistics is a helpful tool for quantitatively describing hydrologic uncertainty, besides, to further limit the uncertainty of hydrologic simulation needs efforts in following studies: to perfect the research on hydrologic mechanism, to improve the observation level of precipitation and the related parameters of underlying surface, to increase the precipitation forecast accuracy, and to heighten the efficiency and precision of probability hydrology calculation.

Key words:  hydrology      simulation      uncertainty      Bayesian theory     
Received:  08 October 2006      Published:  20 September 2007
ZTFLH:  P334.92  
Articles by authors
WU Zhen
ZHANG Shi-qiang
DING Yong-jian

Cite this article: 

WU Zhen;ZHANG Shi-qiang;DING Yong-jian. Research Progress on Uncertainty in Hydrologic Simulation. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2007, 27(5): 890-896.

URL: 

http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/     OR     http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2007/V27/I5/890

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