| 天气与气候 |
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| Research on Statistical Forecast of Haze in Winter in Lanzhou City |
| CHENG Yi-fan, ZHANG Lan-hui, SHANG Ke-zheng, ZHOU Hai, WANG Shi-gong |
| Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change/School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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Abstract Haze is a kind of weather phenomenon when dust, smoke and other dry particles obscure the clarity of sky, and its occurrence is caused not only by air pollution but also by weather conditions. The authors first analyzed the relationship between air visibility and pollutant concentration, and then established the statistical forest model for winter haze in Lanzhou City by simplifying the equation of air pollutant diffusing. The effects of meteorological element, air pollution and visibility were all taken into consideration in this model, so its physical foundation may be more believable than pure statistical models. The relationship between haze and weather conditions in Lanzhou City was analyzed by use of the visibility data, surface and lower layer meteorological element from the Lanzhou Meteorological Station, and the T213 numerical prediction products and the weather map during 2003—2008. The results showed that the reduced air pressure field are favorable for the occurrence of haze in Lanzhou. Finally, a 24-hour haze forecast equation for the Lanzhou City was derived from stepwise regression. This equation was verified by the observation data in 2009, which proved the forecasting results are credible.
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Received: 02 November 2010
Published: 20 May 2011
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2011, Vol. 31 
