Application of the BP Neural Network Model in Summer Drought Prediction: a case in the Hexi Corridor

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00024

JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH

2015, Vol. 35

Issue (2): 474-478 DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00024

Application of the BP Neural Network Model in Summer Drought Prediction: a case in the Hexi Corridor

Liu Honglan^1,2, Zhang Qiang², Zhang Junguo³, Wang Haibo¹, Wen Xiaoyan¹

1. Zhangye Meteorological Bureau, Zhangye 734000, Gansu, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
3. Zhangye Middle School, Zhangye 734000, Gansu, China

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Abstract Using the summer drought and precipitation data collected in the Hexi Corridor, temperature, precipitation air sounding data from Zhangye Observatory, and circulation factors data from National Climate Center of China, a model to predict summer drought and summer precipitation was established based on BP Neural Network model. BP Neural Network model has comparatively ideal forecasting effect to summer drought and summer precipitation. The simulation results have a consistent rate of 97.6% and 84.6% with summer drought history and forecasting, respectively. The simulation results have a consistent rate of 97.6% and 76.9% with summer precipitation history and forecasting, respectively. So BP Neural Network model has very good actual application capability for summer drought forecasting.

Key words: summer drought Hexi Corridor BP neural network forecast model

Received: 24 February 2014 Published: 20 March 2015

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	Articles by authors
	Liu Honglan
	Zhang Qiang
	Zhang Junguo
	Wang Haibo
	Wen Xiaoyan

Cite this article:

Liu Honglan, Zhang Qiang, Zhang Junguo, Wang Haibo, Wen Xiaoyan. Application of the BP Neural Network Model in Summer Drought Prediction: a case in the Hexi Corridor. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2015, 35(2): 474-478.

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http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00024 OR http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2015/V35/I2/474

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