Downscaling Simulation of Annual Average Temperature and Precipitation of CMIP5 Outputs by using HASM—A case study in Heihe River basin

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2016.00074

JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 1227-1236.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2016.00074

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Downscaling Simulation of Annual Average Temperature and Precipitation of CMIP5 Outputs by using HASM—A case study in Heihe River basin

Zhao Na¹, Yue Tianxiang¹, Shi Wenjiao², Zhou Xun¹, Liu Yu¹, Du Zhengping¹

1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Informations System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2016-04-06 Revised:2016-06-06 Online:2017-11-20 Published:2017-11-20

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the spatial stationarity analysis, this study proposed a new statistical downscaling method with a combination of regression method and high accuracy surface modeling method (HASM), by considering geographical and topographical factors. The downscaling results were compared with observations from meteorological stations and the results produced from classical interpolators in 1976-2005 (T₁). The downscaling formula for future scenarios was given and the downscaling results for future temperature and precipitation under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in 2011-2040 (T₂), 2041-2070 (T₃), and 2071-2100 (T₄) were obtained. It showed that the results of the proposed downscaling method were approximate to the real values and the accuracy of the method was higher than other classical methods. Downscaling simulations of the future scenarios indicated that the temperature has the highest rising under RCP8.5 scenario. Except for Qilian mountains, temperature is more than 10 ℃ in 2071-2100.

Key words: high accuracy surface modeling method(HASM), downscaling method, temperature, precipitation, Heihe River basin

CLC Number:

P413

Zhao Na, Yue Tianxiang, Shi Wenjiao, Zhou Xun, Liu Yu, Du Zhengping. Downscaling Simulation of Annual Average Temperature and Precipitation of CMIP5 Outputs by using HASM—A case study in Heihe River basin[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2017, 37(6): 1227-1236.

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Downscaling Simulation of Annual Average Temperature and Precipitation of CMIP5 Outputs by using HASM—A case study in Heihe River basin

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