基于历史帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)数据集重建的长江源区过去706 a径流量

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00116

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用亚洲季风区帕默尔干旱指数（PDSI）重建格点数据集（Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas，MADA）中长江源及附近地区的5个格点序列，通过PDSI与长江源区径流量的相关分析，发现5个格点的第一主成分（PC1）与长江源区夏季（6—8月）平均径流量的相关性最大（r=0.609，N=50，α<0.001）。由此，重建了1300—2005年长江源区夏季径流量变化，并运用独立验证法对重建结果的可靠性进行了检验，运用小波分析方法对重建径流序列进行周期分析。结果表明：近706 a，长江源区经历了显著的丰水期13个、枯水期15个，其中持续时间最长的丰水期为1513—1573年，持续时间最长的枯水期为1389—1414年；重建序列主要存在2~6、10~13、20~26、30~50、50~70 a的显著周期振荡。重建序列与海表温度的相关性表明，长江源区径流变化可能与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）、大西洋年际振荡（AMO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）、太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）等有关。

关键词: 青藏高原, 长江源区, 帕默尔干旱指数, 径流量重建

Abstract: Five grid sequences near the source of the Yangtze River were selected from the reconstructed PDSI gridded datasets in the Asian monsoon region(Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas,MADA). Based on the correlation analysis between PDSI and the runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River, it was found that the first principal component (PC1) of the five grids has the largest correlation (r=0.609,N=50, α<0.001) with the average runoff in the summer (June-August). A record of summer runoff at the source of Yangtze River from 1300-2005 was then reconstructed, and the reliability of the reconstruction equation was tested by the independent verification method. As indicated by the reconstruction, 13 periods of high flow and 15 periods of low flow occurred during the previous 706 years. The longest periods of high flow occurred during 1513-1573, while the longest period of low flow occurred during 1389-1414. Wavelet analysis demonstrated that the reconstructed sequence mainly has significant periodic oscillations of 2-6 years, 10-13 years, 20-26 years, 30-50 years and 50-70 years. Correlation analysis between reconstruction and global sea surface temperature indicated that the runoff variation might be related to ENSO, AMO, NAO, PDO and so on.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the source of Yangtze River, Palmer Drought Severity Index, runoff reconstruction

中图分类号:

P333

王姝, 李金建, 秦宁生. 基于历史帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI)数据集重建的长江源区过去706 a径流量[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(3): 126-135.

Wang Shu, Li Jinjian, Qin Ningsheng. Runoff Reconstruction for the Source of the Yangtze River over the Past 706 Years Based on Historical PDSI Dataset[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(3): 126-135.

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