关键词: 新疆, 人口变动, 环境演变, 未来趋势

Abstract: On the basis of analysis on the interacting mechanics between population change and environmental evolution in a typical arid inland valley_Tarim River Valley, we construct an interrelationship model of population and environmental evolution with systematic dynamics method. Through setting a series of scenarios, this model shows various possible outputs of eco-environment change in the lower reaches under different conditions of population change in the whole valley as well as different reaches. By comparing those outputs, we gain some important conclusions: Firstly, if the population growth rates in all reaches holds zero level, the EDI(environmental degradation index) will drop obviously, and the growth degree of the EDI will be delayed by at least 5-years. Secondly, the impact from the population in headstream on lower reaches environment is the heaviest when comparing with the impacts from other reaches, so controlling the population growth of headstream is a key factor. In the end of the paper we point out some countermeasures and suggestions from both birth control and immigration aspects.

Key words: Xinjiang, population change, environmental evolution, future trend