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中国沙漠 ›› 2008, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 908-914.

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆1961—2000年高空温度变化的若干事实及突变分析

张广兴1,2; 赵 玲1; 孙淑芳3
  

  1. 1.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002; 2.中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081; 3.乌鲁木齐市气象局, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2008-01-20 修回日期:2008-03-15 出版日期:2008-09-20 发布日期:2008-09-20

Analysis of Some Facts and Abrupt Change of Upper Air Temperature in Xinjiang during 1961—2000

ZHANG Guang-xing1,2; ZHAO Ling1; SUN Shu-fang3

  

  1. 1.Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China; 2.Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3.Urumqi Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2008-01-20 Revised:2008-03-15 Online:2008-09-20 Published:2008-09-20

摘要: 采用1961—2000年新疆12个探空站逐日观测资料,利用经过5点平滑处理的曲线趋势对比和线性相关的研究方法,分析了40 a来12个探空站边界层、对流层、对流层顶和平流层从2 m和850 hPa至10 hPa的探空标准层各层的温度变化趋势;对流层和平流层各典型层间的相关关系;年际温度距平的垂直分布;并用Mann-Kendall方法进行了突变检验。研究表明:新疆平流层以20世纪80年代初为界,之前温度升高,之后温度降低,曲线呈“∧”型;对流层温度经历先降后升变化,曲线呈“V”型,两层温度表现为反位相变化趋势。其中30 hPa和300 hPa温度、50 hPa和400 hPa温度均达到0.05的显著水平负相关。对流层顶的200 hPa、250 hPa两个层次温度变化平稳。新疆年代际垂直方向温度分布特征70年代整层均为负距平,80年代对流层为负距平而平流层为正距平,曲线呈现镜像“S”型;60年代和90年代对流层为正距平,平流层为负距平,曲线呈现一个上下一致的“S”型。30 hPa、50 hPa和70 hPa温度在80年代初发生由升转降的突变;250 hPa温度在80年代初,500 hPa和700 hPa在1987年,2 m在1973年均发生由降转升的显著突变,显著水平达到0.01。

关键词: 平流层温度, 对流层温度, 变化趋势, 突变分析, 新疆

Abstract:

On the basis of the daily temperature radiosonde data recorded by twelve stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2000, this paper analyzed the temperature change trend of sounding standard levels such as boundary layer, troposphere, tropopause and stratosphere by means of five-point smoothing method and linear correlation, also analyzed the correlation between troposphere and stratosphere and other typical layers, and the vertical distribution of annual temperature anomaly, then the abrupt change was tested by using the Mann-Kendall method. The results indicated that the stratospheric temperature over Xinjiang increased before 1980s and decreased afterward with a change curve like \!∧”. On the contrary, the tropospheric temperature changed with a like “V”. A significantly negative correlation existed between 30 hPa temperature and 300 hPa temperature, also between 50 hPa temperature and 400 hPa temperature, their significant level all arrived at 0.05 level. The temperature variation at 200 hPa and 250 hPa was stable. The vertical distribution of decadal temperature anomaly was negative at whole levels in 1970s, but negative in troposphere and positive in stratosphere in 1980s, with a variation curve like opposing \!S\". Contrarily, the vertical distribution of decadal temperature anomaly was positive in troposphere and negative in stratosphere in 1960s and 1990's, with a curve like \!S\". Analysis of abrupt change revealed that temperature at 30 hPa, 50 hPa, and 70 hPa originally went up before 1980's and then went down. At the same time, temperature at 250 hPa, 500 and 700 hPa and 2 m all originally descended and then increased around 1980's, 1987 and 1973, respectively, with significant level of 0.01.

Key words: stratospheric temperature, tropospheric temperature, change trend, analysis of abrupt change, Xinjiang

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