关键词: 荒漠化, 元胞自动机, 蒙特卡罗方法, ArcObjects模块, 民勤绿洲

Abstract: The ecological environment in the Lake area is the worst among Minqin oasis, where the groundwater level drops year by year, but its mineralization degree rises year by year. These have resulted in desertification getting more and more serious. The TM remote images in 1992, 1998, 2002 and 2006 over the Lake area of the Minqin oasis were interpreted to analyze the desertification evolution. Through the combination of ArcObjects module and Cellular Automata Model, a model simulating the desertification dynamics was set up. The forecasting accuracy of this model can reach 90%. In comparison of the predicted data with the actual ones, the parameters of this Cellular Automata Model were adjusted. The desertification situation in 2012 was forecasted by this model. The results showed that, from 2006 to 2012, the green land area will reduce 999.92 hm2, the desertification land area reduce 3 000.68 hm2, and sand land area will increase 4 000.6 hm2. The sand land will be more widespread, and 18% sand land will distribute in the middle of green land of the Lake area. Namely, more and more abandoned land in the green land will be transformed into sand land. As a result, this will intensify the desertification degree.

Key words: desertification, Cellular Automata Model, Monte Carlo method, ArcObjects, lake area of Minqin oasis