基于CA模型的乌鲁木齐都市圈城市用地扩展模拟研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 借助CA模型技术,基于乌鲁木齐都市圈城市用地发展的特点,构建了模拟多个城市群体扩展的CA模型,重点对模型的转换规则进行了扩展,把用地适宜性约束、城市内部社会经济驱动、城市之间相互作用力、区域生态格局限制、城市发展规模有限这几个方面的作用机制融入到模型的规则制定中,通过宏观约束、中观调节、微观驱动3个层次逐步实现;为了使社会经济数据与CA模型中的空间数据相匹配,对社会经济数据进行了空间化表达;在历史数据的参照下,所构建的模型经过反复调试与修正,模拟结果达到了较为满意的效果;应用此模型模拟了经济优先、生态优先与规划优先3种不同情景下的城市用地扩展,对都市圈城市用地今后的发展起到重要的启示作用。

关键词: 乌鲁木齐, 都市圈, CA模型, 多情景, 模拟

Abstract: In the process of rapid urbanization, there is an evident trend that some adjacent cities in space develop together in China. Metropolitan Area is an outcome in this trend, with the central city as a core and developing with some other cities. Urumqi Metropolitan is locateed at the northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. It is an oasis Metropolitan formed in arid environment. With the development of Urumqi Metropolitan Area, the economic growth would lead to spatial pattern change evidently. The urban land expansion scale, direction, and way are becoming the focus of Urumqi Metropolitan Area development. Thus it is necessary to study on the urban land expansion using effective method to guide the regional develop sustainable. Based on the characteristics of urban land expansion of Urumqi Metropolitan Area, using the general method of CA, this paper builds a CA model improved to simulate the multi-urban land expansion in Metropolitan. To build the CA model which can reflect the rule and characteristics of Metropolitan, the urban expansion feature and influenced mechanism are considered while set transfer rules in CA model. The factors' mechanism are represented as macro limitation, middle adjustment and micro drive in transfer rule, which make the CA model reality in simulating the process of urban land expansion in Metropolitan. To match the social-economic data with spatial data in the CA model, the process of social-economic data converting to spatial data is explained in detail. Through simulating the urban land in 2006 year according to the data in 2002, the Lee-Sallee index indicating CA model precision reaches 76%, which means the model built in this paper can be used to forecast the urban growth in future. The CA model build in this study is applied in urban land expansion for three scenario such as economy-first, ecology-first and planning-first, and the different simulation results reveal that developing modes will form different spatial pattern in Urumqi Metropolitan Area.

Key words: Urumqi, metropolitan area, CA model, multiple scenario, simulation

中图分类号:

F291.1

张新焕;祁毅;杨德刚;徐建刚. 基于CA模型的乌鲁木齐都市圈城市用地扩展模拟研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2009, 29(5): 820-827.

ZHANG Xin-huan;QI Yi;YANG De-gang;XU Jian-gang. Simulation of Urban Land Expansion Using CA Modelin Urumqi Metropolitan Area[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2009, 29(5): 820-827.

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