[1]Jones P,Briffa K,Barnett T,et al.High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation,integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures[J].The Holocene,1998,8(4):455-471. [2]Wilks D.Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences[M].Amsterdam,The Netherlands: Elsevier,2006:1857. [3]Von Storch H,Zwiers F.Statistical Analysis in Climate Research[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1999:293. [4]Mann M E,Bradley R S,Hughes M K.Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries[J].Nature,1998,392(6678):779-787. [5]李明启,靳鹤龄,张洪.小冰期气候的研究进展[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(5):731-737. [6]Mann M E,Bradley R S,Hughes M K.Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium:Inferences,uncertainties,and limitations[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1999,26(6):759-762. [7]McIntyre S,McKitrick R.Hockey sticks,principal components,and spurious significance[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32. [8]Soon W,Baliunas S.Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1 000 years[J].Climate Research,2003,23(2):89-110. [9]Zorita E,Gonzalez-Rouco J,Von Storch H,et al.Natural and anthropogenic modes of surface temperature variations in the last thousand years[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005:32. [10]Osborn T J,Briffa K R.The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1 200 years[J].Science,2006,311(5762):841-844. [11]NRC.Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years[R].Washington,D.C.:The National Academies Press,2006:109. [12]Crowley T J,Lowery T S.How warm was the medieval warm period?[J].Ambio,2000,29(1):51-54. [13]左昕昕,靳鹤龄.中世纪暖期气候研究综述[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(1):136-142. [14]Bürger G,Cubasch U.Are multiproxy climate reconstructions robust[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32. [15]Esper J,Cook E,Schweingruber F.Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability[J].Science,2002,295(5563):2250-2253. [16]Moberg A,Sonechkin D M,Holmgren K,et al.Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data[J].Nature,2005,433(7026):613-617. [17]Hegerl G C,Crowley T J,Hyde W T,et al.Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries[J].Nature,2006,440(7087):1029-1032. [18]Esper J,Wilson R J S,Frank D C,et al.Climate:past ranges and future changes[J].Quaternary Science Reviews,2005,24(20-21):2164-2166. [19]Juckes M N,Allen M R,Briffa K R,et al.Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation[J].Climate of the Past,2007,3(4):591-609. [20]Lee T C K,Zwiers F W,Tsao M.Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods[J].Climate Dynamics,2008,31(2-3):263-281. [21]Mann M E,Zhang Z H,Rutherford S,et al.Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly[J].Science,2009,326(5957):1256-1260. [22]Briffa K R,Jones P D,Wigley T M L,et al.Climate reconstruction from tree rings:Part 2,spatial reconstruction of summer mean sea-level pressure patterns over Great Britain[J].International Journal of Climatology,1986,6(1):1-15. [23]Luterbacher J,Dietrich D,Xoplaki E,et al.European seasonal and annual temperature variability,trends,and extremes since 1500[J].Science,2004,303(5663):1499-1503. [24]Casty C,Raible C C,Stocker T F,et al.A European pattern climatology 1766—2000[J].Climate Dynamics,2007,29(7-8):791-805. [25]Pauling A,Luterbacher J,Casty C,et al.Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation[J].Climate Dynamics,2006,26(4):387-405. [26]Riedwyl N,Kuttel M,Luterbacher J,et al.Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques:application to Europe[J].Climate Dynamics,2009,32(2):381-395. [27]Fritts H C,Blasing T J,Hayden B P,et al.Multivariate techniques for specifying tree-growth and climate relationships and for reconstructing anomalies in Paleoclimate[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,1971,10(5):845-864. [28]Glahn H.Canonical correlation and its relationship to discriminant analysis and multiple regression[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1968,25(1):23-31. [29]Fritts H,Lofgren G,Gordon G.Variations in climate since 1602 as reconstructed from tree rings[J].Quaternary Research,1979,12(1):18-46. [30]Briffa K R,Jones P D,Schweingruber F H.Tree-ring density reconstructions of Summer temperature patterns across Western North America since 1600[J].Journal of Climate,1992,5(7):735-754. [31]Cook E R,Briffa K R,Jones P D.Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology:A review and comparison of two techniques[J].International Journal of Climatology,1994,14(4):379-402. [32]Cook E,Woodhouse C,Eakin C,et al.Long-term aridity changes in the western United States[J].Science,2004,306(5698):1015. [33]Cook E R,Meko D M,Stahle D W,et al.Drought reconstructions for the continental United States[J].Journal of Climate,1999,12(4):1145-1162. [34]Neukom R,Luterbacher J,Villalba R,et al.Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries[J].Climate Dynamics,2010:1-17. [35]邵雪梅,黄磊,刘洪滨,等.树轮记录的青海德令哈地区千年降水变化[J].中国科学(D辑),2004,34(2):145-153. [36]Zhang Q,Cheng G,Yao T,et al.A 2,326-year tree-ring record of climate variability on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(14):1739-1742. [37]Liang E,Liu X,Yuan Y,et al.The 1920s drought recorded by tree rings and historical documents in the semi-arid and arid areas of northern China[J].Climatic Change,2006,79(3):403-432. [38]Liu Y,An Z,Ma H,et al.Precipitation variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by the tree rings since 850 AD and its relevance to the Northern Hemisphere temperature[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,2006,49(4):408-420. [39]魏文寿,袁玉江,喻树龙,等.中国天山山区235 a气候变化及降水趋势预测[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(5):803-808. [40]陈向军,袁玉江,陈峰,等.天山北坡东部地区树轮宽度年表特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(5):833-841. [41]张瑞波,魏文寿,袁玉江,等.树轮记录历史时期阿克苏河流域沙尘天气变化[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(5):1040-1046. [42]勾晓华,陈发虎,杨梅学,等.青藏高原东北部树木年轮记录揭示的最高最低温的非对称变化[J].中国科学(D辑),2007,37(11):1480-1492. [43]喻树龙,袁玉江,魏文寿,等.天山北坡西部树木年轮对气候因子的响应分析及气温重建[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(5):827-832. [44]Yang B,Braeuning A,Johnson K,et al.General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2002,29(9):38-31. [45]Ge Q,Zheng J,Fang X,et al.Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River,China,during the past 2000 years[J].The Holocene,2003,13(6):933. [46]Tan M,Liu T,Hou J,et al.Cyclic rapid warming on centennial-scale revealed by a 2650-year stalagmite record of warm season temperature[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(12):1617-1620. [47]王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢,等.近百年中国年气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):392-401. [48]王绍武,闻新宇,罗勇,等.近千年中国温度序列的建立[J].科学通报,2007,52(8):958-964. [49]Cook E R,Anchukaitis K J,Buckley B M,et al.Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium[J].Science,2010,328(5977):486-489. [50]PAGES.Science Plan and Implementation Strategy[R].Stockholm:IGBP Secretariat,2009:57. [51]Jones P,Mann M.Climate over past millennia[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2004,42(2):1-42. [52]Mann M E,Zhang Z H,Hughes M K,et al.Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2008,105(36):13252-13257. [53]Mann M E.Climate over the past two millennia[J].Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2007,35:111-136. [54]Rutherford S,Mann M E,Osborn T J,et al.Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions:Sensitivity to method,predictor network,target season,and target domain[J].Journal of Climate,2005,18(13):2308-2329. [55]Shindell D,Schmidt G,Mann M,et al.Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum[J].Science,2001,294(5549):2149. [56]Shindell D,Schmidt G,Miller R,et al.Volcanic and solar forcing of climate change during the preindustrial era[J].Journal of Climate,2003,16:4094-4107. [57]Waple A,Mann M,Bradley R.Long-term patterns of solar irradiance forcing in model experiments and proxy based surface temperature reconstructions[J].Climate Dynamics,2002,18(7):563-578. [58]Fischer E,Luterbacher J,Zorita E,et al.European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(5):5707. [59]Von Storch H,Zorita E,Jones J,et al.Reconstructing past climate from noisy data[J].Science,2004,306(5696):679. [60]Thejll P,Schmith T.Limitations on regression analysis due to serially correlated residuals:Application to climate reconstruction from proxies[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2005,110. [61]Moberg A,Mohammad R,Mauritsen T.Analysis of the Moberg et al.(2005) hemispheric temperature reconstruction[J].Climate Dynamics,2008,31(7):957-971. [62]Tingley M P,Huybers P.A bayesian algorithm for reconstructing climate anomalies in space and time.Part Ⅱ:Comparison with the regularized expectation-maximization algorithm[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(10):2782-2800. |