过去2 000a中国和北半球温度变化及其外部强迫因子重建研究进展

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00036

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对过去2 000a气候变化的研究是解决20世纪气候变暖归因问题的关键途径之一，近年来取得了重要进展。从北半球和中国区域温度变化重建、外部强迫变化及其对温度影响等方面回顾了过去2 000a气候变化的研究历程，论述了代表性的研究成果并总结了新的科学认识。主要认识有：（1）在十年至百年尺度上，过去千年北半球中高纬地区的夏半年温度变化基本同步；（2）在百年尺度上，太阳活动在北半球温度变化中可能扮演了重要角色，而在年际到十年尺度上火山活动是北半球温度变化的主要驱动因子，但频繁的大型火山喷发事件也会造成百年尺度上气候冷暖平均态的转变；（3）温室气体是工业革命以来气候变暖的主导因素之一，但其中的年代际波动受到气候系统内部变率的影响。今后，将模拟与重建结果结合起来量化各驱动因子对气候变化的影响，进而揭示气候变化的机制是过去2 000a气候变化研究的热点。

关键词: 温度重建, 外部强迫, 北半球, 中国

Abstract: Common Era climate change research is one of the key ways to resolve the attribution of climate warming in the 20th century. In recent years, it has made considerable progress. This paper reviews the research history, introduces the representative reconstruction results and summarizes some new scientific understanding of Common Era climate change research in some aspects:temperature reconstructions of the past 2 000 years in Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China, external forcing variabilities and their effects on temperature. The main scientific knowledges are summarized as follows:(1) Variation in the extratropical NH summer temperature is in phase at timescales from decadal to centennial during the last millennium; (2) At a centennial timescale, solar variability may play an important role in the NH temperature variation, but large volcanic eruptions are primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability, and consecutive large volcanic eruptions may cause century-scale regime shifts of the climatic mean state; (3) Greenhouse gases is one of the leading factors of climate warming since industrial revolution, but interdecadal temperature fluctuations are also affected by internal variability of the climate system.In the future, the main research focuses of Common Era climate change will be to quantify the impact of various drivers on climate change and reveal the mechanism of climate change by combining the simulation and reconstruction results.

Key words: temperature reconstruction, external forcing, Northern Hemisphere, China

中图分类号:

P467

王鑫, 杨保. 过去2 000a中国和北半球温度变化及其外部强迫因子重建研究进展[J]. 中国沙漠, 2018, 38(4): 829-840.

Wang Xin, Yang Bao. Research Progresses in Reconstructions of Temperature and External Forcing Factors in China and Northern Hemisphere over the Past 2000 years[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2018, 38(4): 829-840.

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