新疆塔里木河流域水资源承载力评价研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 结合塔里木河2002年自然、社会和经济以及水资源资料,选取了耕地灌溉率、水资源利用率、供水模数、需水模数、人均供水量、生态用水率6个主要因素作为评价因素,应用模糊综合评判模型对塔里木河流域水资源承载能力进行了评价研究。结果表明,流域水资源开发利用已经达到相当规模,在现有经济技术条件下,该地区的水资源承载潜力已相对较小,水资源供需矛盾突出,应由耗水型经济结构向节水型经济结构转变,加强水资源的综合管理,以便科学、合理地利用流域内有限的水资源。

关键词: 水资源承载力, 模糊综合评判, 新疆, 塔里木河流域

Abstract: This paper primarily explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of inland river basin in arid northwest China, and sets up an evaluation model by applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to Tarim river basin. Based on the data of nature, society, economics and water resources of Tarim River in 2002.This paper evaluated the water resources carrying capacity by means of the model. The selected evaluation factors include irrigation ratio of arable land, use efficiency of water resources,water supply modulus,water demand modulus , per capita practical water supply and ecological water use ratio. The evaluated results show that the comprehensive grade of Tarim river basin is 0.492, and the current water exploitation and use has reached a relative high degree, and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity. It is necessary to strengthen water resources integrated management in order to utilize water resources scientifically and reasonably.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Xinjiang, Tarim river basin

中图分类号:

F323.213

孟丽红;陈亚宁;李卫红. 新疆塔里木河流域水资源承载力评价研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2008, 28(1): 185-190.

MENG Li hong;CHEN Ya ning;LI Wei hong. Study of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2008, 28(1): 185-190.

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