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中国沙漠 ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 1301-1311.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2015.00042

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

1958-2013年山西降水时空分布

李芬1, 张建新2, 张荣1   

  1. 1. 山西省气象服务中心, 山西 太原 030002;
    2. 山西省气象决策服务中心, 山西 太原 030006
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-06 修回日期:2015-02-07 出版日期:2015-09-20 发布日期:2015-09-20
  • 作者简介:李芬(1964-),女,山西汾阳人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事气候资源与区域气候变化研究。Email: lifen1964@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    山西省气象科研项目(SXKYBQH20147828);山西省科技攻关项目(20130312012).

Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Precipitation in Shanxi during 1958-2013

Li Fen1, Zhang Jianxin2, Zhang Rong1   

  1. 1. Shanxi Meteorological Service Center, Taiyuan 030002, China;
    2. Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision-making, Taiyuan 030006, China
  • Received:2015-01-06 Revised:2015-02-07 Online:2015-09-20 Published:2015-09-20

摘要:

受全球变化的影响,1958-2013年山西的气候呈现了新的变化特点。基于38个气象站最新气候资料,应用线性倾向估计、均值分布和EOF等方法,研究了山西降水的变化特征。结果表明:(1)山西年降水量平均为494.9 mm;年降水量382.8~637.2 mm,呈下降趋势,与全国降水的变化趋势一致,但下降幅度为12.6 mm/10a,显著高于全国水平。(2)春、夏、秋、冬季平均降水量分别为77.6、290.5、114.3、13.0 mm,除冬季平均降水量略微增加外,其他季节均呈下降趋势,这与华北地区一致。(3)春、夏季和冬季降水量年代际特征明显,但各有不同,春冬大部分时段波动为反向特征,近年来逐渐趋于同向;夏季是在显著下降趋势上叠加了年代际变化,且下降幅度最大达9.8 mm/10a;冬季波动最为剧烈,降水量1.1~28.3 mm,最多年是最少年的24.7倍。(4)年及四季降水的总体一致性是山西降水变化的主导特征,近56年大部分年及其四季降水都表现出一致的偏旱或偏涝,但高荷载区具有一定的区域性特点,年降水位于中东部、春季降水位于中南部、夏、秋、冬季降水位于南部。(5)年和夏季降水EOF分解各模态的收敛速度较慢,第一模态的方差贡献分别为33%和49%,前3个模态累计方差贡献分别为69%和70%;春、秋季和冬季EOF分解各模态收敛速度较快,第一模态的方差贡献分别高达65%、62%和74%,前3个模态累计方差贡献分别达到81%、84%和86%。

关键词: 降水, 气候变化, 时空分布, 山西

Abstract:

Affected by the global change, climate change in Shanxi presented new features. Based on the latest climate data from 38 meteorological stations in Shanxi, this paper analyzed the climate change characteristics of precipitation in Shanxi during 1958-2013 using linear trend estimation, average distribution and EOF analysis. The results show: (1) Annual mean precipitation in Shanxi was 494.9 mm, it varied from 382.8 mm to 637.2 mm in the past 56 years and had a linear decreasing trend of 12.6 mm/10a (significantly higher than the national level). (2) The average seasonal precipitations were 77.6 mm (spring), 290.5 mm (summer), 114.3 mm (autumn) and 13.0 mm (winter), respectively. Except winter, precipitation had decreasing trend in the other season, which was consistent with the research result on North China. (3) The precipitation in spring, summer and winter had obvious decadal characteristics: precipitation in spring had reversed fluctuating features with precipitation in winter, the more (less) the spring precipitation, the less (more) the winter precipitation; precipitation in summer had significant decreasing trend and inter-decadal variation, the biggest decline was 9.8 mm/10a; the winter precipitation had the most dramatic fluctuation, it varied from 1.1 mm to 28.3 mm in the 56 years, the maximum value was 24.7 times of the minimum value. (4) The EOF analysis indicated that annual & four season's precipitation in Shanxi have good consistence in space and show consistent more or less in most years, but the high load zone had some regional characteristics: high load zone of the annual precipitation was located in the central east region, high load zone of the spring precipitation was located in the south central region, high load zones of the summer, autumn and winter precipitation were located in the south region. (5) The modals decomposed with EOF for annual and summer precipitation had slow convergence speeds, variance contribution rates of the first modals were 33% and 49%, respectively, the cumulative variance contribution rates of the first three modals were 69% and 70%, respectively. Variance contribution rates of the modals decomposed with EOF for spring, autumn and winter precipitation were large, their convergence speeds are fast. Variance contribution rates of the first modals were 65%, 62% and 62% respectively, the cumulative variance contribution rates of the first three modals are 81%, 84% and 86%, respectively.

Key words: precipitation, climate change, spatial-temporal distribution, Shanxi

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