关键词: 水资源, 变化趋势, Markov链, 灰色离散随机过程

Abstract: The Heihe River,situated in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province,is the most representative inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China.The water resource of the basin mainly roots in precipitation and ice and snow melting-water in the Qilian Mountains area and it plays an important part in the development of society and economy of this area.Based on the observation data at the relational hydro-meteorological network,the space-time distribution characteristics and variation orderliness were analyzed.A Grey Markov Chain Model,which was used to forecast the dynamic trend of water resources in the Heihe River Basin,was presented according to the theory of GM(1,1) model and Markov chain.The results show that the natural runoff of the Heihe River has interphasely experienced the five low-flow and the five high-flow periods from 1944 to 1999.At present,it is at the lowest mark of the fifth high-flow period beginning from 1996 or the starting point of the sixth low-flow period beginning from 2000.The natural water resources of the entire Heihe River basin will present a state of under normal flow as a whole,but the decreasing extent of it will be quite finite.

Key words: natural water resources, changing trend, Markov Chain, Grey disperse random process