晋北沙漠化地区1980-2014年的气候变化

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2016.00010

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化对土地沙漠化有一定驱动作用。以晋北沙漠化地区为研究区域，对1980-2014年影响该地区土地沙漠化的气候因子进行分析，采用气候变化倾向率、突变检验、滑动t检验、GIS空间模拟和插值等方法来探讨气候变化时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）1980-2014年，晋北沙漠化地区春季升温速率较大，气温整体呈缓慢上升趋势，年均气温从1980年6.37℃升高到2014年8.01℃，空间上呈现出由两边向中心逐渐减弱的趋势，并且在1990年存在明显增温突变，春夏季气温突变明显；（2）晋北沙漠化地区秋季降水增长幅度最为明显，年降水量整体呈现升高趋势，年降水量的倾向率均为正值，年降水量从1980年357.83mm升高到2014年403.82mm，降水量处于非突变的自然波动状态，稳定性较强，在空间上差异明显，由东北向西南逐渐增加；（3）年均风速呈逐年减小的趋势，春季风速从1980年3.25m·s^-1降低到2014年2.48m·s^-1，减小趋势最为明显，在空间上呈现由西北至东南逐渐增大的趋势。

关键词: 风沙活动, 气候变化, 沙漠化, M-K突变检验

Abstract: Climate change is one of the main driving forces of the sandy desertification. In this study, we combined the climate trend rate, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Slide t test, and Kriging spatial interpolation methods to explore the temporal and spatial variation of climate factors which influence sandy desertification in Northern Shanxi Province in 1980-2014. The results showed that: (1) The temperature in the area gradually increased in general. In spring, the increasing rate of temperature was more intensive. The annual mean temperature in the study area increased from 6.37℃ in 1980 to 8.01℃ in 2014. The spatial pattern indicated that the temperature increase in southern area was higher than in the northern area. The Mann-Kendall test of temperature showed that the warming mutation year was in 1990. (2) The seasonal precipitation presented a rising trend, especially in autumn. The annual mean precipitation in the area increased gradually from 357.83 mm in 1980 to 403.82 mm in 2014, with a positive tendency. The precipitation time series mutation test showed that there weren't significant mutation feature, and the distribution of precipitation increased gradually from northeast to southwest. (3) The wind speed decreased gradually from 3.25m·5s^-1 in 1980 to 2.48 m·5s^-1 in 2014, and with a significant decreasing trend in spring. The distribution of wind speed is lower in northwest and higher in southeast. The results could reveal the basic characteristics of the climate change in Northern Shanxi Province during the past 35 years, and provide scientific foundation for the desertification control in this area.

Key words: aeolian activity, climate change, sandy desertification, Mann-Kendall trend analysis

中图分类号:

P467

张莉秋, 张红, 李皎, 李晋昌. 晋北沙漠化地区1980-2014年的气候变化[J]. 中国沙漠, 2016, 36(4): 1116-1125.

Zhang Liqiu, Zhang Hong, Li Jiao, Li Jinchang. Climate Change in Sandy Desertification Area of the Northern Shanxi from 1980 to 2014[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2016, 36(4): 1116-1125.

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