中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性评价

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00020

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在调查和分析中国北方地区农业生产现状的基础上，选择水资源、农业经济、社会和防旱抗旱能力4个准则层共16个指标构建农业干旱脆弱性评价指标体系。运用主成分分析法对高维变量系统进行有效降维，根据方差贡献率建立中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性评价模型，获得中国北方地区水资源、农业经济、社会和防旱抗旱能力脆弱性评价结果，获得各省（自治区、直辖市）干旱脆弱性分级阈值和区划。结果表明：（1）通过主成分分析得到农业经济、水资源、防旱抗旱能力、社会等5个主成分，方差贡献率分别为41.99%、19.25%、14.06%、8.07%和5.32%。（2）中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性从小到大依次为北京、天津、山东、辽宁、吉林、山西、内蒙古、安徽、河北、河南、陕西、宁夏、青海、黑龙江、新疆和甘肃。

关键词: 主成分分析, 农业干旱, 脆弱性, 中国北方地区

Abstract: The vulnerability of water resources, agricultural economy, society and the ability of drought prevention and resistance were selected as the criterion layers to establish the index evaluation system of agricultural drought vulnerability, which was based on investigating and analyzing the present situation of agricultural production in Northern China.The principal component analysis method was used to reduce the dimensionality of high dimensional variables. According to the variance contribution, the evaluation model of agricultural drought vulnerability in Northern China was established, and the classification threshold and regionalization of drought vulnerability in various provinces According to the classification threshold and division of agricultural drought vulnerability in Northern China, the agricultural drought vulnerability based onascending sequence was Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Gansu.

Key words: principal component analysis, agricultural drought, vulnerability, Northern China

中图分类号:

P429

王莺, 赵文, 张强. 中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性评价[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(4): 149-158.

Wang Ying, Zhao Wen, Zhang Qiang. Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in Northern China[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(4): 149-158.

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