Risk assessment and regionalization of drought disasters in different seasons in Shaanxi， China based on MCI

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00034

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 125-133.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2022.00034

Risk assessment and regionalization of drought disasters in different seasons in Shaanxi， China based on MCI

Xiaomeng Zhao¹^,²(), Tianwang Lei³(), Jinger Fan⁴, Ying Han¹^,², Qi Wang¹^,²

^1.Shaanxi Climate Center，Xi'an 710014，China
^2.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau，Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau，Xi'an 710014，China
^3.Xi'an Traffic Engineering Institute，Xi'an 710065，China
^4.Xi'an Meteorological Bureau，Xi'an 710016，China

Received:2022-01-24 Revised:2022-04-06 Online:2022-11-20 Published:2023-01-09
Contact: Tianwang Lei

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the daily data from 94 meteorological stations of Shaanxi Province from 1961 to 2018， according to the climatic background of drought disasters and the social-economic environment， combined with the theory of disaster risk， the drought disaster risk index system and model is established based on risk hazard factors， subsequently environmental vulnerability and disaster bearing bodies exposure and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity reliability. Based on the GIS platform， drought disaster risk regionalization in different seasons in Shaanxi Province is carried out. The research results show that：（1） There are obvious seasonal differences in the risk of drought disaster causing factors in various regions of Shaanxi. The drought risk in the northern of Shaanxi is higher in all seasons except summer， and the Guanzhong area is prone to summer drought. The drought risk index of Hanzhong in southern Shaanxi is higher， while the drought risk index of east Ankang and Shangluo is lower. （2） In spring， summer and autumn， the Hanzhong Plain in southern Shaanxi and the Ankang Hanjiang River Valley， Xi'an and Weinan in Guanzhong， and Yulin in northern Shaanxi are high risk areas or sub high risk areas of drought disaster environmental vulnerability. In winter， the high risk areas in most southern Shaanxi and Qinling are smaller than those in other three seasons； Qinling Mountains with higher altitude， Guanzhong Plain and northern Shaanxi are low risk or sub-low risk areas in all seasons. （3） The high risk areas of disaster bearing body exposure are mainly distributed in Guanzhong area. （4） The areas with the highest disaster prevention and mitigation capacity reliability in the province are urban areas along the Yellow River in northern Shaanxi and all over Guanzhong. （5） The high risk areas of drought disaster comprehensive risk are mainly in Bashan area in southern Shaanxi， the north and south sides of Qinling Mountains， and the south of northern Shaanxi. Hanjiang Plain in southern Shaanxi， Guanzhong Plain， Yan'an and Yulin in northern Shaanxi are low risk areas of drought.

Key words: drought disaster risk, assessment, regionalization, MCI

CLC Number:

P429

Xiaomeng Zhao, Tianwang Lei, Jinger Fan, Ying Han, Qi Wang. Risk assessment and regionalization of drought disasters in different seasons in Shaanxi， China based on MCI[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2022, 42(6): 125-133.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1 Distribution of meteorological stations in Shaanxi

Table 1 The weights of drought disaster risk assessment indexes in different seasons of Shaanxi

评估因子	因子权重	指标	指标权重
致灾因子危险性	0.4	干旱平均强度	0.4
孕灾环境脆弱性	0.2	海拔	0.18
		第三产业人均GDP	0.36
		植被指数	0.26
		土壤粒径	0.2
承灾体暴露度	0.2	人口密度	0.2
		经济密度	0.2
		耕地比例	0.6
防灾减灾能力	0.2	人均GDP	0.5
		河网密度	0.3
		库区密度	0.2

Fig.2 Regionalization on the dangerousness of the drought disaster factors in spring （A）， summer （B）， mid-summer （C）， autumn （D）， winter （E）， autumn and winter （F） of Shaanxi

Fig.3 Regionalization on the vulnerability of drought disaster-breading environment in spring （A）， summer （B）， autumn （C）， winter （D） of Shaanxi

Fig.4 Regionalization on the exposure of the drought disaster-brearing body of Shaanxi

Fig.5 Regionalization on the drought disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of Shaanxi

Fig.6 Regionalization on the drought disaster risk in spring （A）， summer （B）， mid-summer （C）， autumn （D）， winter （E）， autumn and winter （F） of Shaanxi

References 32

1	陈德亮，赖慧文.IPCC_AR6_WGI报告的背景、架构和方法［J］.气候变化研究进展，2021，17（6）：636-642.
2	IPCC.Climate Change 2007：the Physical Science Basis［M］.Cambridge，UK：Cambridge University Press，2007.
3	IPCC.Climate Change 2013：the Physical Science Basis［M］.Cambridge，UK：Cambridge University Press，2013.
4	IPCC.Climate Change 2021：the Physical Science Basis［M］.Cambridge，UK：Cambridge University Press，2021.
5	王春乙，张继权，霍治国，等.农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望［J］.气象学报，2015，73（1）：1-19.
6	李万志，张调风，马有绚，等.基于灾害风险因子的青海省干旱灾害风险区划［J］.干旱气象，2021，39（3）：480-485.
7	马鹏里，韩兰英，张旭东，等.气候变暖背景下中国干旱变化的区域特征［J］.中国沙漠，2019，39（6）：209-215.
8	Ullah H， Akbar M， Khan F.Construction of homogeneous climatic regions by combining cluster analysis and L-moment approach on the basis of Reconnaissance Drought Index for Pakistan［J］.International Journal of Climatology，2020，40（1）：324-341.
9	Hoque M A， Pradhan B， Ahmed N，et al.Agricultural drought risk assessment of Northern New South Wales，Australia using geospatial techniques［J］.The Science of the Total Environment，2020，756（17）：143600.
10	王莺，李耀辉，赵福年，等.基于信息扩散理论的甘肃省农业旱灾风险分析［J］.干旱气象，2013，31（1）：43-48.
11	张竟竟.河南省农业水旱灾害风险评估与时空分布特征［J］.农业工程学报，2012，28（18）：98-106.
12	张存杰.干旱监测、预警及灾害风险评估技术研究［M］.北京：气象出版社，2020.
13	韩兰英，张强，马鹏里，等.气候变暖背景下黄河流域干旱灾害风险空间特征及区域差异性［J］.中国沙漠，2021，41（4）：225-234.
14	冯波，章光新，李峰平.松花江流域季节性气象干旱特征及风险区划研究［J］.地理科学，2016，36（3）：466-474.
15	何娇楠，李运刚，李雪，等.云南省干旱灾害风险评估［J］.自然灾害学报，2016，25（5）：37-45.
16	李娜，霍治国，钱锦霞，等.山西省干旱灾害风险评估与区划［J］.中国农业资源与区划，2021，42（5）：100-107.
17	刘晓冉，康俊，王颖，等.基于GIS的重庆地区不同季节干旱灾害风险评估与区划［J］.自然灾害学报，2019，28（2）：92-100.
18	王莺，王劲松，姚玉璧.甘肃省河东地区气象干旱灾害风险评估与区划［J］.中国沙漠，2014，34（4）：1115-1124.
19	杜继稳.陕西省干旱监测预警评估与风险管理［M］.北京：气象出版社，2008.
20	景毅刚，杜继稳，张树誉.陕西省干旱综合评价预警研究［J］.灾害学，2006（4）：46-49.
21	石忆邵.陕西省干旱灾害的成因及其时空分布特征［J］.干旱区资源与环境，1994（3）：51-57.
22	何斌，王全九，吴迪，等.基于主成分分析和层次分析法相结合的陕西省农业干旱风险评估［J］.干旱地区农业研究，2017，35（1）：219-227.
23	吴迪，张海涛，何斌，等.基于模糊聚类循环迭代模型的陕西省农业干旱风险评估与区划［J］.干旱地区农业研究，2018，36（5）：230-241.
24	徐玉霞，许小明，杨宏伟，等.基于GIS的陕西省干旱灾害风险评估及区划［J］.中国沙漠，2018，38（1）：192-199.
25	曹永强，路洁，冯兴兴.辽西北春玉米旱灾灾损风险区划［J］.自然资源学报，2021，36（5）：1346-1358.
26	赵晓萌，蔡新玲，卫星君，等.陕西省季节变化特征研究［J］.陕西气象，2021（4）：27-32.
27	廖要明，张存杰.基于MCI的中国干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征［J］.气象，2017，43（11）：1402-1409.
28	刘兰芳，谭秉霖，张可，等.基于主成分分析的湖南省城市雾霾灾害风险评估［J］.灾害学，2021，36（1）：76-81.
29	黄进，陈金华，张方敏.基于主成分分析的安徽省冬小麦气候灾损风险的时空演变［J］.应用生态学报，2021，32（9）：3185-3194.
30	杨晓颖，玉山，都瓦拉，等.基于主成分分析的内蒙古干旱脆弱性评价研究［J］.草原与草业，2020，32（4）：46-52.
31	魏建波，赵文吉，关鸿亮，等.基于GIS的区域干旱灾害风险区划研究：以武陵山片区为例［J］.灾害学，2015，30（1）：198-204.
32	田玉刚，覃东华，杜渊会.洞庭湖地区洪水灾害风险评估［J］.灾害学，2011，26（3）：56-60.

[1]	Meng Wang, Xuemin Gao, Xin Qu, Siyue Zhang, Yaoyao Zhang, Guanchun Chen, Jiyan Li. Morphological characteristics of dunes in the piedmont of southwestern Qaidam Basin， China [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2021, 41(5): 166-174.
[2]	Lanying Han, Qiang Zhang, Pengli Ma, Youheng Wang, Tao Huang, Jianying Jia, Xin Wang, Xiaowei Wang, Weiping Liu, Danhua Li, Guoyang Lu, Pengcheng Huang, Bing Bai. Characteristics of drought disasters risk in the Yellow River Basin under the climate warming [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2021, 41(4): 225-234.
[3]	Li Li, Qingqing Zhang, Yamei Wang, Hong Li, Xinfeng Zhao. Comprehensive assessment of ecosystem vulnerability， the value of service function and risk in Kezi River Basin in 2000-2018 [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2021, 41(2): 164-172.
[4]	Yuzhu Wang, Haowen Yan, Xiaoping Wang. Risk assessment of wind-sand disaster in Xinjiang， China [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2020, 40(6): 13-21.
[5]	Ma Pengli, Han Lanying, Zhang Xudong, Liu Weiping. Regional Characteristics of Drought in China under the Background of Climate Warming [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(6): 209-215.
[6]	Han Lanying, Zhang Qiang, Jia Jianying, Wang Youheng, Huang Tao. Drought Severity, Frequency, Duration and Regional Differences in China [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(5): 1-10.
[7]	Sheng Danrui, Wen Xiaohu, Feng Qi, Wu Jun, Si Jianhua, Wu Min. Groundwater Nitrate Pollution and Human Health Risk Assessment in the Zhangye Basin, Gansu, China [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(5): 37-44.
[8]	Xiao Shengchun, Yan Changzhen, Tian Yongzhen, Si Jianhua, Ding Aijun, Chen Xiaohong, Han Chao, Teng Zeyu. Regionalization for Desertification Control and Countermeasures in the Alxa Plateau, China [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(5): 182-192.
[9]	Wang Weiwei, Zhou Lihua, Chen Yong, Sun Yan, Hou Caixia. Sustainable Development Assessment of Agro-pastoral Transitional zone in North China Based on Barometer of Sustainability: A Case Study in Yanchi, Ningxia [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(2): 27-34.
[10]	Guan Mengluan, Zhang Zhengcai, Dong Zhibao. Progresses on the Research of Aeolian Disaster Risk Assessment [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2018, 38(5): 978-988.
[11]	Sun Lifan, Shi Xingmin, Wang Lu. Assessments of the Efficacy of Farmers' Adaptive Behaviors to Climate Change [J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2018, 38(2): 428-436.
[12]	Shi Lei, Li Longtang, Zhang Guanle, Yang Ping, GaoXiuyan, Zhao Yunpeng. Principal Function Regionalization of Desert Tourism based on Suitability Analysis: A case study in Shapotou, Ningxia, China [J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2018, 38(2): 437-443.
[13]	Yue Xiyuan, Zuo Xiaoan, Zhao Xueyong, Chang Xueli, Lian Jie, Hou Mengzi, Zhang Jing, Lv Peng. Desertification Risk Assessment in Horqin Sandy Land [J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2018, 38(1): 8-16.
[14]	Xu Yuxia, Xu Xiaoming, Yang Hongwei, Zhang Yan. Assessment and Regionalization of Drought Disaster Risk in Shaanxi Province Based on GIS [J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2018, 38(1): 192-199.
[15]	Guan Mengluan, Zhang Zhengcai, Dong Zhibao. Wind-blown Sand Disaster Risk Assessment in the Hexi Corridor Based on RS and GIS [J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2017, 37(5): 830-835.

Risk assessment and regionalization of drought disasters in different seasons in Shaanxi， China based on MCI

RichHTML

PDF

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 7

References 32

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments