Characteristics of drought disasters risk in the Yellow River Basin under the climate warming

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2021.00082

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 225-234.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2021.00082

Characteristics of drought disasters risk in the Yellow River Basin under the climate warming

Lanying Han¹^,²(), Qiang Zhang²^,³, Pengli Ma¹, Youheng Wang¹, Tao Huang¹(), Jianying Jia¹, Xin Wang¹, Xiaowei Wang¹, Weiping Liu¹, Danhua Li¹, Guoyang Lu¹, Pengcheng Huang¹, Bing Bai¹

^1.Lanzhou Regional Climate Center，Lanzhou 730020，China
^2.Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province / Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA，Institute of Arid Meteorology，China Meteorological Administration，Lanzhou 730020，China
^3.Meteorology Bureau of Gansu，Lanzhou 730020，China

Received:2021-05-26 Revised:2021-07-14 Online:2021-07-27 Published:2021-07-27
Contact: Tao Huang

Abstract

Abstract:

The Yellow River Basin is an important economic belt and economic growth pole in China. It is also a populated densely area， an agricultural planting area and a key ecological bearing area. Under the climate background of global warming and frequent extreme precipitation events， the characteristics of drought change have been extremely prominent in the Yellow River Basin in recent years. Under the situation， the drought disaster risk and its response mechanism to climate change need to be further understood in the Yellow River Basin. Therefore， this article used the in 122 meteorological stations daily data since 1960 in the Yellow River basin， combined with remote sensing， social statistics and geographic information data and technology， based on the theory of disaster risk， established risk hazard factors， subsequently environmental vulnerability and vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity reliability of four factors of drought disaster risk index system and model， The characteristics and regional differences of drought disaster risk were analyzed in detail in the Yellow River Basin . The results show that the distribution pattern of drought disaster risk has obvious zonality and complexity in the Yellow River Basin， and there are significant differences among different basins. The high risk areas are mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin， and the risk in the middle and lower reaches is higher than that in the upper reaches. In the lower reaches of the river， the drought risk is mainly dominated by the drought hazard factors， while the hazard and vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body control the overall risk pattern. In the middle reaches， the drought risk is mainly contributed by the drought hazard factors， vulnerability and disaster-prevention capacity. On the upstream， the vulnerability of disaster-pregnant environment and reliability of disaster-prevention ability are more important than the disaster hazard factors and vulnerability. The variation law of drought disaster risk and its response to climate are extremely complex in the Yellow River Basin. The drought disaster risk is mainly affected by monsoon climate and complex terrain， as well as various factors such as social and economic development level， population exposure and contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. This study is of great significance to the ecological civilization construction， food security guarantee and national development strategy of the Yellow River basin.

Key words: Yelllow River Basin, drought disaster, risk assessment, climate change, MCI

CLC Number:

X703.5

Lanying Han, Qiang Zhang, Pengli Ma, Youheng Wang, Tao Huang, Jianying Jia, Xin Wang, Xiaowei Wang, Weiping Liu, Danhua Li, Guoyang Lu, Pengcheng Huang, Bing Bai. Characteristics of drought disasters risk in the Yellow River Basin under the climate warming[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2021, 41(4): 225-234.

Figures/Tables 9

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等级	类型	干旱程度（MCI）	持续时间（DT）	干旱频次（DF）
1	低危险	-15<MCI	DT≤5 d	≤30%
2	次低危险性	-30<MCI≤-15	5d<DT≤10 d	30%<DF≤40%
3	中度危险性	-40<MCI≤-30	10d<DT≤15 d	40%<DF≤50%
4	次高危险性	-45<MCI≤-40	15d<DT≤20 d	50%<DF≤60%
5	高危险性	MCI≤-45	DT>20 d	DF>60%

等级	类型	干旱程度（MCI）	持续时间（DT）	干旱频次（DF）
1	低危险	-15<MCI	DT≤5 d	≤30%
2	次低危险性	-30<MCI≤-15	5d<DT≤10 d	30%<DF≤40%
3	中度危险性	-40<MCI≤-30	10d<DT≤15 d	40%<DF≤50%
4	次高危险性	-45<MCI≤-40	15d<DT≤20 d	50%<DF≤60%
5	高危险性	MCI≤-45	DT>20 d	DF>60%

因子	指标和权重
致灾因子危险性	干旱程度0.4	持续时间0.35	发生频次0.25
承灾体易损性	作物种植面积0.3	土地利用类型0.2	植被覆盖度0.2	净初级生产力0.3
孕灾环境脆弱性	地形高差0.22	植被覆盖度0.24	河网密度0.16	土壤类型0.38
防灾减灾能力可靠性	GDP 0.45	土壤含水量 0.3	人口 0.25

因子	指标和权重
致灾因子危险性	干旱程度0.4	持续时间0.35	发生频次0.25
承灾体易损性	作物种植面积0.3	土地利用类型0.2	植被覆盖度0.2	净初级生产力0.3
孕灾环境脆弱性	地形高差0.22	植被覆盖度0.24	河网密度0.16	土壤类型0.38
防灾减灾能力可靠性	GDP 0.45	土壤含水量 0.3	人口 0.25

指数/范围	极低	低	中度	高	极高
致灾因子危险性	0.00—0.30	0.30—0.40	0.40—0.50	0.50—0.60	0.60—1.00
承灾体易损性	0.00—0.15	0.15—0.25	0.25—0.35	0.35—0.60	0.60—1.00
孕灾环境脆弱性	0.00—0.30	0.30—0.50	0.50—0.65	0.65—0.80	0.80—1.00
防灾减灾能力可靠性	0.00—0.20	0.20—0.40	0.40—0.60	0.60—0.80	0.80—1.00
干旱综合风险	0.00—0.20	0.20—0.35	0.35—0.55	0.55—0.75	0.75—1.00

Characteristics of drought disasters risk in the Yellow River Basin under the climate warming

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