Impact of climate change on the suitable habitatdistribution of Gymnocarpos przewalskii, a relict plant

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00075

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 125-133.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2019.00075

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Impact of climate change on the suitable habitatdistribution of Gymnocarpos przewalskii, a relict plant

Zhao Zefang¹, Wei Haiyan², Guo Yanlong^3,4, Luan Wenfei⁴, Zhao Zebin⁴

1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian 710119, China;
3. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;
4. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2019-06-11 Revised:2019-08-01 Online:2020-03-20 Published:2020-04-26

Abstract

Abstract: Gymnocarpos przewalskii is an endangered relict plant, which plays an important role in maintaining and improving the fragile desert ecological environment. Based on niche theory, combined with 19 environmental and climate variables belong to 3 categories we developed a comprehensive habitat suitability model by integrating 5 model algorithms to a unified modeling process to assess the distribution of suitable G. przewalskii habitats across China in the 2000s and the 2070s under RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios, which will provide theoretical and technical support for the introduction and domestication for G. przewalskii. Our results show that Bio3 (Isothermality), Bio11 (Mean temperature of coldest quarter), Bio12 (Annual precipitation), Bio19 (Precipitation of coldest quarter), Slope, T_caso4 (Topsoil gypsum), T_gravel (Topsoil gravel content), Tusda (Topsoil USDA Texture Classification) were dominant environmental variables for the suitable habitat distribution of this species. Under the basic climatic conditions, the suitable habitats for G. przewalskii in China were approximately 0.59×10⁶ km², which mainly distributes in the Hexi Corridor and its surrounding areas, and the margin of the Tarim Basin. Under the climate warming scenario, the suitable habitat area will increased slightly, and the difference between various climate change scenarios was small, with the suitable habitat will shift northward.

Key words: Gymnocarpos przewalskii, climate change, ensemble species distribution model, habitat distribution

CLC Number:

Q948

Zhao Zefang, Wei Haiyan, Guo Yanlong, Luan Wenfei, Zhao Zebin. Impact of climate change on the suitable habitatdistribution of Gymnocarpos przewalskii, a relict plant[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2020, 40(2): 125-133.

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Impact of climate change on the suitable habitatdistribution of Gymnocarpos przewalskii, a relict plant

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