Prediction and Trend of Future Potential Evapotranspiration in the Heihe River Basin Based on CMIP5 Models

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2017.00047

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 849-857.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2017.00047

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Prediction and Trend of Future Potential Evapotranspiration in the Heihe River Basin Based on CMIP5 Models

Qi Xiaofan^1,2,3, Li Wenpeng², Li Haitao²

1. Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Baoding 071051, Hebei, China;
2. China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China;
3. School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2017-02-23 Revised:2017-05-08 Online:2018-07-20 Published:2018-11-06

Abstract

Abstract: Evapotranspiration is the main dissipation of water resources in arid inland river basin. Future potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) prediction can provide basic data for water resources optimization and management under climate change in the Heihe River Basin (HRB). Three processes could be classified in this study. Firstly,ET₀ was calculated by FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation based on metrological data from 1960 to 2014 in HRB. Secondly,future ET₀ was predicted by statistical downscaling and deviation regulation based on NCEP reanalysis data from 1960 to 2014, and CMIP5 CNRM-CM5 model from 2006 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Finally,three subareas were divided by rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) and future trends were analyzed by Mann-Kendall tests for the three subareas and whole HRB.The conclusions showed that:(1)The stepwise regression statistical downscaling models built by NCEP reanalysis data and calculated ET₀ from 1960 to 2014 were suitable for predicting future ET₀ of HRB by CNRM-CM5 model simulation and deviation regulation. (2)Annual average ET₀ of 2021-2050, 2071-2100 would increase 3.49%, 6.11% than that of 1971-2000 separately under RCP4.5 pathway,while the percentage were 4.64%, 10.07% under RCP8.5 pathway.The increasing amplitude of RCP8.5 was greater than that of RCP4.5. (3)Three subareas of future ET₀ were divided by REOF under both pathways.Insignificantly decreasing trend was detected for area I under RCP4.5 pathway, while the trend under RCP8.5 pathway was significant. Significantly increasing trends were detected for area Ⅱ, Ⅲ and whole HRB under both pathways.

Key words: evapotranspiration, CMIP5, statistical downscaling, climate change, concentration pathways, reference crop evapotranspiration

CLC Number:

P343.1

Qi Xiaofan, Li Wenpeng, Li Haitao. Prediction and Trend of Future Potential Evapotranspiration in the Heihe River Basin Based on CMIP5 Models[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2018, 38(4): 849-857.

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Prediction and Trend of Future Potential Evapotranspiration in the Heihe River Basin Based on CMIP5 Models

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