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Journal of Desert Research ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 292-303.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2024.00184

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Prediction model of dust mass generation in dust source by random forest

Bin Li1(), Xiaolong Sun1(), Yuechen Zhao2, Qi Jiang3, Shiqing Lu1, Jiaqi Tang1   

  1. 1.Inner Mongolia Eco- and Agro-Meteorological Center,Hohhot 010051,China
    2.Inner Mongolia Meteorological Center,Hohhot 010051,China
    3.National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100000,China
  • Received:2024-11-20 Revised:2024-12-27 Online:2025-01-20 Published:2025-01-13
  • Contact: Xiaolong Sun

Abstract:

The source of dust has always been the focus of social attention, but the amount and contribution of dust between Mongolia and the China are not so clear. In this paper, typical dust monitoring product by remote sensing from 2019 to 2024 were used to establish the response relationship between dust flux, meteorological elements and sand sources, which considered the meteorological elements and surface condition corresponding to the mass of dust generated in the generation stage of dust weather. The trend of dust generation and intensity by the source are quickly evaluated by using model or real data. On this basis, the results by multi-temporal remote sensing are used to estimate the dust source, and the application effects of four typical dust processes were analyzed, as well as, the uncertainty of the model. The results showed that: (1) The scatter-point fitting of the monitoring data was verified with R2=0.84 and the mean absolute error (MAD)=25.2 kg·km-2·min-1. (2) The model could predict the impact of local dust release and provide quantitative assessment of the contribution from different dust sources, which could provide scientific basis for desertification control.

Key words: dust mass, dust monitoring, random forest, remote sensing, dust source, FY-4

CLC Number: