Abstract:

This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for new quality productive forces （NQPF） based on the theoretical framework of Marxist political economics and the core tenets of the new development philosophy， encompassing five dimensions： innovation， coordination， green development， openness， and sharing. Using panel data from 65 prefecture-level cities （or equivalent） in the Yellow River Basin for the years 2011， 2017， and 2023， the research employs the entropy method， spatial autocorrelation analysis， and geographical detector techniques to examine the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of NQPF. The findings reveal that：1. the level of NQPF in the Yellow River Basin exhibits a spatial pattern of "downstream > midstream > upstream，" with overall improvement over time and a gradual westward expansion of high-value regions. 2. Dimensional analysis indicates that downstream areas excel in innovation， openness， and sharing， while upstream regions perform better in coordination. 3. Geographical detector results highlight that the number of green patents has the most significant impact on NQPF （explanation rate： 56%）， followed by total patents and regional innovation indices. Interaction analysis further demonstrates that the synergistic effects of green patents with factors such as digital inclusive finance and energy consumption enhance explanatory power （up to 72.3%）. Based on these findings， the study proposes policy recommendations centered on green technological innovation， supported by inclusive finance and regional industrial specialization， to promote high-quality NQPF development in the Yellow River Basin， balancing ecological conservation with coordinated regional growth.

Key words: new quality productive forces（NQPF）, Yellow River Basin, spatio-temporal pattern, geographical detector