气候变化下蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)适宜生境预测

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00148

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 蒙古沙拐枣（Calligonum mongolicum）是中国干旱、荒漠地区主要的防风固沙植物，预测该气候变化对其地理分布范围的影响，对中国荒漠化防治工作具有指导意义。采用获得的蒙古沙拐枣108个种群分布数据和22个气候环境因子数据，利用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型软件预测蒙古沙拐枣在当前、2041—2060年及2061—2080年在中国干旱区的潜在地理分布，探究气候变化对该物种分布的可能影响。结果表明：（1）影响蒙古沙拐枣分布的主要气候环境因子为年降水量、年平均气温、气温年较差、最干季降雨量以及海拔；（2）目前，蒙古沙拐枣的适宜生境面积约为5.4×10⁵ km²，高适宜生境为7×10⁴ km²，主要分布在新疆塔里木盆地、准噶尔盆地边缘地带、甘肃河西走廊及其周边、腾格里沙漠；（3）在未来气候变化的情景下，蒙古沙拐枣的适宜生境范围大幅增加，适宜生境向高纬度地区移动，高适宜生境集中分布于甘肃河西走廊以及腾格里沙漠地区，且呈带状分布。

关键词: 蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum), 物种分布, 适宜生境, MaxEnt

Abstract: Calligonum mongolicum is an important windbreak and sand fixing plant in arid and desert areas of China.Revealing the spatial distribution of this species and understanding the potential impacts of climate warming on its future distribution are critical for desertification control in China. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of C.mongolicum in current, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 was simulated using MaxEntsoftware based on species presence data and 22 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the main climatic and environmental factors affecting the distribution of C.mongolicum are annual precipitation, annual mean air temperature,temperature annual range,temperature annual range and altitude; (2) at present, the suitable habitat area of C.mongolicum is about 5.4×10⁵ km², the high suitable habitat is 7×10⁴ km², mainly distributed in the Tarim Basin, the edge zone of the Junggar basinin Xinjiang;The Hexi Corridor and its surrounding, and the Tengger Desert in Gansu Province;(3) in the future climate change, the suitable habitat of the C.mongolicum is greatly increased, and the suitable habitat is moved to the high latitudes.The high suitable habitat centralized distributionin the Hexi Corridor of Gansu and the Tengger Desert.

Key words: Calligonum mongolicum, species distribution, suitable habitat, MaxEnt

中图分类号:

Q948

朱妮. 气候变化下蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)适宜生境预测[J]. 中国沙漠, 2019, 39(3): 136-144.

Zhu Ni. Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Calligonum mongolicum under Climate Change[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(3): 136-144.

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