黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum)分布对气候变化的响应及其种植适宜性

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2016.00099

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于生态位理论与MaxEnt模型，分析影响黑果枸杞（Lycium ruthenicum）分布的主要气候因子，划分其适宜种植区，并探究气候变化对黑果枸杞种植适宜性的影响，进而为引种驯化黑果枸杞提供理论依据和技术支持。结果表明：（1）影响黑果枸杞种植分布的主要因子为最热季降水量、温度年较差、年平均气温、最冷季平均温度、降水量的季节性变化、最湿月降水量、最干季平均温度、年降水量及海拔。（2）在当前气候情景下，黑果枸杞的适宜种植区面积约为207382.8 km²，主要分布在河西走廊及其周边、柴达木盆地、塔里木盆地、准格尔盆地、吐鲁番盆地。（3）在未来不同的温室气体排放情景下，黑果枸杞的适宜种植面积均有不同幅度的扩大，但不受气候变化影响的黑果枸杞适宜种植区面积将逐渐减小。

关键词: 黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum), 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 种植适宜性

Abstract: Based on niche theory and the MaxEnt model, in this study, we analyzed the significant factors determining the distribution of Lycium ruthenicum. And then with the result of model, we divided its suitable cultivation regions, and explored the possible impacts of climate change on the suitability of the species. Results showed that:(1) there are nine significant factors determining the planting distribution of L. ruthenicum:Precipitation of warmest quarter, Temperature annual range, Annual mean air temperature, Mean temperature of coldest quarter, Annual precipitation, Precipitation of wettest month, Mean temperature of driest quarter, Annual precipitation, and Elevation above sea level. (2) under the current climate scenario, the suitable planting regions of L. ruthenicum is about 207 382.58 km², mainly distributed in the Hexi corridor of Gansu province and its surrounding, Qaidam Basin of Qinghai province, parts of the Tarim basin, Junggar Basin and Turfan Depression, Xinjiang. (3) under all four climate change scenarios, the suitable cultivation regions of L. ruthenicum all will have different rates of expansion, but the suitable cultivation regions of L. ruthenicum's immune from climate change will gradually decrease. The result of this study will provide theoretical and technical support for the introduction and domestication of L. ruthenicum.

Key words: Lycium ruthenicum, climate change, MaxEnt model, cultivation suitability

中图分类号:

Q948.2

赵泽芳, 卫海燕, 郭彦龙, 赵泽斌, 庞国锦, 马媛, 顾蔚. 黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum)分布对气候变化的响应及其种植适宜性[J]. 中国沙漠, 2017, 37(5): 902-909.

Zhao Zefang, Wei Haiyan, Guo Yanlong, Zhao Zebin, Pang Guojin, Ma Yuan, Gu Wei. Impacts of Climate Change on Cultivation Suitability of Lycium ruthenicum[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2017, 37(5): 902-909.

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