关键词: 经济发展, 人口增长, 耕地资源, 库兹涅茨曲线, 政策建议, 海南岛

Abstract: Based on the statistical data from 1970 to 2004, and by using statistical analysis methods, we analyzed the dynamic changing relation between the cultivated lands and the growth of population and economic development in Hainan province in recent 35 years. Four correlation models have been formulated: relation between the decrease of cultivated land and population increasing, relation between the decrease of cultivated land and the total investment in fixed assets, relation between the decrease of cultivated land and the per-capita GDP, relation between the decrease of cultivated land and the urbanization level.(1) The main driving forces of the changing of cultivated land use were social economic factors under the conduction and control of national policy.(2) The curves described the relation between the cultivated land using and the increasing of population, economic growth are just like the Kuznets Curves: with the increasing of population and the growth of economy, the tendency of the cultivated land decreasing presented a change of firstly decreasing, then increasing, and decreasing again.(3) Based on the optimization of the Kuznets Curves of the cultivated land, the paper gave five kinds of measures to harmonize the contradiction between the increasing of population and the growth of economy and the protection of the cultivated land in the light of economic measures, administration measures, law measures, technical measures and informal measures: to establish the market system of land resources, to enhance the degree of market collocation of land resources and to make the exterior problem of land resource utilization be interior, to control the farmland conversion process way such as to make the property rights more legible, reform the current land requisition system, improve the controlled measure of the cultivated land, and to establish efficient innovation mechanism and system of technology of land resources utilization, to strengthen consciousness of people in cultivated land protection.

Key words: economic growth, population increasing, cultivated land resources, Kuznets Curves, policy suggestion, Hainan province