沙尘暴危险度的定量评估研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目前对于沙尘暴风险管理的系统性和实用性有待完善,在沙尘暴危险度研究中缺乏对于气象因子的实时定量评估方法,使得气象服务工作也只能为沙尘暴提供实时卫星监测结果,尚不能细致提供沙尘暴危险度的实时定量评估结果,不同程度地影响了沙尘暴防灾减灾工作的高效实施。系统化沙尘暴风险分类,将沙尘暴灾害应对分为防灾过程和减灾过程,明确了沙尘暴危险度在这两种过程中的主要构成,结合沙尘暴危害特点提出了实时数量化的沙尘暴危险度诊断表达式,对表达式各组成部分进行了初步讨论。使用层次分析法结合聚类分析,分析甘肃民勤地区2001年6月1日—2010年11月15日的地面气象观测资料,得出该地沙尘暴危险度具体表达形式并进行计算,给出了在此期间民勤地区沙尘暴危险度的定量评估结果。结果表明,在民勤地区该时间段内,沙尘暴危险度范围为0.45～4.49,平均危险度为1.99,超过平均危险度的沙尘暴时次有25次,其中最危险的沙尘暴发生于2010年4月24日,完全符合历史事实。由此说明,沙尘暴危险度表达式能够客观地给出沙尘暴危险度实时诊断结果,且其结构清楚,计算简单,便于气象服务业务工作的使用与推广。

关键词: 沙尘暴, 危险度, 河西地区, 层次分析法, 聚类分析

Abstract: Risk management of sandstorm needs a systematic and practical improvement and lack of method for evaluating real-time quantitative meteorological factors in sandstorm risk research leads to that we can only provide real-time sandstorm monitoring result by satellite in weather service and can not got detailed real-time quantitative sandstorm risk assessment results. The lack limits efficient implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation work. We systematically classified sandstorm risk, divided the sandstorm disaster treatment as disaster prevention and disaster mitigation, defined the components of sandstorm risks in the two main courses, and last gave a real-time quantitatively diagnosing equation of sandstorms risk. Using the AHP analysis and cluster analysis methods, the sandstorm risk in Minqin of Gansu province was assessed based on this equation and the local meteorological data from June 1, 2001 to November 15, 2010. The assessment results showed that the sandstorm risk index ranged from 0.45 to 4.49 during this period, and the average sandstorm risk index was 1.99, and the most dangerous sandstorm occurred in April 24, 2010. The result was completely consistent with the historical facts. It was proved that the quantitative equation of sandstorms risk assessment can give correct sandstorm risk assessment results, and it has a clear structure and simple calculation, so it is easy to work in meteorological services and to be popularized.

Key words: sandstorm, risk level, analytic hierarchy process, cluster analysis, Hexi area

中图分类号:

P445.4

姜大海;王式功;尚可政. 沙尘暴危险度的定量评估研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2011, 31(6): 1554-1562.

JIANG Da-hai;WANG Shi-gong;SHANG Ke-zheng. Quantitative Assessment of Sandstorm Risk[J]. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2011, 31(6): 1554-1562.

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