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中国沙漠 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 542-549.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00230

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

科尔沁沙地奈曼旗1970—2010年降水的多时间尺度分析

姚淑霞1,2, 张铜会2, 赵传成1,2   

  1. 1. 兰州城市学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070;
    2. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2012-07-10 修回日期:2012-08-18 出版日期:2014-03-20 发布日期:2014-03-20
  • 作者简介:姚淑霞(1980—),女,甘肃灵台人,博士,讲师,主要从事生态水文学研究。Email:yaoshuxia@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAC07B02);国家自然科学基金项目(31300388,41361013);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB421303)资助

Multiple-time-scale Analysis on Precipitation in Naiman Bannerof Horqin Sandy Land in 1970-2010

Yao Shuxia1,2, Zhang Tonghui2, Zhao Chuancheng1,2   

  1. 1. Lanzhou City College, Lanzhou 730070, China;
    2. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2012-07-10 Revised:2012-08-18 Online:2014-03-20 Published:2014-03-20
  • Contact: 张铜会(Email:zhangth@lzb.ac.cn)

摘要: 利用回归分析、小波分析和Mann-Kendall (M-K)突变分析研究了1970—2010年奈曼旗的降水变化特征。结果表明:(1) 不同雨量级中,0~5 mm降水事件最多,占全年降水事件的70%以上,其降水量也最多,占全年降水量的18%;降水间隔期以0~5 d为主,占全年无降水期的73%。(2) 1970—2010年奈曼旗年降水及季降水波动较大,基本呈相对少雨期和相对多雨期相间分布的特征;年降水及春、夏、秋和冬季降水的倾向率分别为-12.4、0.8、-3.2、-1.3 mm/10a和-0.3 mm/10a; 年降水及春、夏和秋季降水在1990年左右以正距平为主,而在1985年之前和1995年以后以负距平为主;冬季降水基本随年份增加呈减少的趋势。(3) 1月降水量最少,7月最多。7月降水量约占年降水量的30%以上,且与其他各月相比均有显著差异。(4) 通过小波分析发现,奈曼旗年降水存在6~8年的较短周期和17年左右的较长周期变化;年降水和夏、秋及冬季降水在进入21世纪后都有减少趋势。(5) M-K突变分析表明,奈曼旗年降水减少及春季降水增加的突变点分别为 2004年和2006年。

关键词: 科尔沁沙地, 降水, 小波分析, Mann-Kendall突变分析

Abstract: The change trends of Naiman's precipitation patterns during 1970-2010 were analyzed by using linear regression, wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall (M-K) mutation analysis. The results showed that, (1) Precipitation in the research area was dominated by small precipitation events with 0-5 mm, accounted for 70% of the total events, and up to 18% of the total precipitation amount. The precipitation interval was dominated by 0-5 days, accounted for 73% of the total days without precipitation. (2) In 1970-2010, the annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation changed complex, shown a dry wet dry process; The tendency rate of annual precipitation and spring, summer, autumn and winter precipitation was 12.4, 0.8, 3.2, 1.3 and 0.3 mm/10a, respectively; Annual precipitation and spring, summer and autumn precipitation have been positive anomaly about 1990, and negative anomaly before 1985 and after 1995. Winter precipitation showed a decreasing trend generally. (3) The precipitation was least in January, while a greatest in July and the July's precipitation accounted for more than 30% of the total precipitation amounts. And there was a significant difference in precipitation amount between the July and the other month. (4) Morlet wavelet analysis found that annual precipitation had a shorter cyclical fluctuation of 6-8 years and a longer cyclical fluctuation of 17 years in this region. Annual precipitation and summer, autumn and winter precipitation decreased in the beginning of the 21st century; (5) M-K mutation analysis showed that a reduce trend for annual precipitation and an increase trend for spring precipitation, and the start of abrupt time was 2004 and 2006, respectively.

Key words: Horqin Sandy Land, precipitation, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis

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