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中国沙漠 ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 56-62.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

河西走廊景观类型变化的社会经济驱动力研究

蒙吉军1,2, 李正国1,2   

  1. 1. 北京大学环境学院 资源与环境地理系, 北京 100871;
    2. 地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2003-02-25 修回日期:2003-05-06 出版日期:2004-02-20 发布日期:2004-02-20
  • 作者简介:蒙吉军(1971-),男(汉族),甘肃张掖人,博士,主要从事综合自然地理学、土地利用/覆被变化及区域(旅游)开发与规划等方面的科研与教学工作。E-mail:jijunm@urban.pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金"河西走廊土地利用/覆被变化的驱动机制及土地可持续利用"(40101002)资助

Socio-economic Driving Forces of Landscape Change in Hexi Corridor

MENG Ji-jun1,2, LI Zheng-guo1,2   

  1. 1. f Analysis and Simulation of Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2003-02-25 Revised:2003-05-06 Online:2004-02-20 Published:2004-02-20

摘要: 利用1995和2000年两个时期的Landsat5的4、3、2(RGB)波段合成影像解译结果, 采用中国科学院资源环境数据库中的全国1∶10万土地资源利用分类系统, 对河西走廊近5年来景观动态变化的驱动力进行了研究。为判断出区域景观类型变化趋势, 研究从区域背景变化格局分析入手, 对区域内部变化斑块的几何特征、变化数目及与GDP的对应关系进行统计分析, 得出河西走廊景观变化和社会经济发展具有较高的时空相关性, 进而用典型相关分析方法来推导了斑块变化的内在社会经济驱动力。结果表明: ①引起耕地斑块转出的因子是农牧投入-产出的增加, 水域斑块转出直接与渔业产值有关, 未利用地斑块转出与农业机械的使用和播种面积增加相关, 林地斑块转出的因子是农业产量和工业产值的变化, 城建斑块转出与农民收入低、城市化水平有关; 城镇用地斑块转入是工业产值增加的结果, 草地、林地斑块转入的因子是农业投入的增加, 耕地斑块转入与农民收入增加有关, 水域斑块转入直接因子是渔业产值增加。②结合驱动力类型分析, 耕地面积变化主要是最优经济福利及粮食安全驱动作用下的结果; 草地、林地被开垦, 耕地增加主要是生存型经济福利驱动的结果, 最优经济福利驱动有时也起到一定的作用; 城镇用地增加主要是最优经济福利驱动的结果; 在生态环境脆弱及其

关键词: 河西走廊, 景观类型动态, 社会经济驱动力, 典型相关分析

Abstract: Based on the interpretation of composite imagery of band 4, 3, 2 of Landsat 5 in 1995 and 2000, the driving factors of landscape dynamics in Hexi Corridor were analyzed by using 1∶100000 land and resources classification system issued by Resources and Environmental Database, Chinese Academy of Sciences. In order to get information of the changing trend of landscape types, geometric characteristics, changing numbers of dynamic patches inside the region, and their relationship with corresponding GDP value were statistically analyzed, which showed a high space-time correlation between changes of landscape and social-economy development. And the driving factors to changes of landscape patches were discussed by Canonical Analysis. The following conclusions have been obtained: First, the transformation of cultivated land to other land use types were highly correlated with the increase of input and output of agriculture and livestock farming; the transformation of water patches to other land use type could be explained by fishery income; none-used land changes to other types were the result of increasing use farm machines and cultivated land area; factors of the transformation of forest land to other land types were changes of agricultural productivity and industrial income; transformation of urban construction patches to other land types correlated with peasants income and urbanization level. On the other hand, the transformation of other land use types to urban construction land was the result of increase of industrial income; the transformations of other land use types to grassland and forest land could be explained by the increase of agricultural investment; and changes of other land use types to cultivated land correlated with the increase of peasants income; and the transformation of other land use types to water patches was the direct result of fishery income increase. Second, based on the analysis of driving factors, it was considered that changes of cultivated land area were the result of optimum economic welfare and provisions security. The decrease of grassland and forest and the increase of cultivated land area were driven by the economic welfare of survival types, but also had some relation with optimum economic welfare. The increase of urban land area was closely correlated with optimum economic welfare. In some fragile and highly affected areas, the reconstruction of forestland and reuse of none-used land were driven by environmental security reasons.

Key words: Hexi Corridor, landscape types change, socio-economic driving force, Canonical Correlation Analysis(CCA)

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