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中国沙漠 ›› 1991, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (4): 61-65.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

应用灰色理论对奈曼旗沙漠化发展的估算

奈民夫1, 宗义芳1, 刘占卜拉2,3, 何满喜2,3   

  1. 1. 内蒙古林学院, 呼和浩特;
    2. 奈曼旗林业局;
    3. 内蒙古师范大学
  • 出版日期:1991-12-20 发布日期:1991-12-20

Estimation of Desertification Development in Naiman Banner with Grey Theary

Nai Minfu1, Song Yifang1, Luijibola2,3, He Manxi2,3   

  1. 1. Inner Mongolian Forestry Institute;
    2. Naiman Banner Office of Forestry;
    3. Inner Mongolian Teachers University
  • Online:1991-12-20 Published:1991-12-20

摘要: 应用灰色系统理论对奈曼旗的人口、牲畜、沙漠化土地面积三个重要指标进行预测, 奈曼旗人口预测模型:X1(t+1)=1627.54e0.016855t-1600.7; 奈曼旗牲畜预测模型:X2(t+1)=21567.4e0.005099t-21463.7; 奈曼旗沙漠化土地预测模型:X3(t+1)=240599e0.009475t-238309。

关键词: 奈曼旗, 沙漠化, 灰色系统, 发展趋势

Abstract: In this stuby the population, animals and the area of desertified land in Naiman Banner were calculated on the basis of grey system theory. There three index are important to predict the bevelopmemt tendency of land desertification: the model of linner differential GM(1, 1) is dx(1)/dt+dx(1)=u; the model of population prediction in the banner: X1=(t+1)=1627.54e0.016855t-1600.7(1); the model of animal prediction: x2(t+l)=21567.4e0.005099t-21463. 7(2); and the model of desertified land: x3(t+1)=240599e0.009475t-238309(3).