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JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH  2013, Vol. 33 Issue (3): 874-881    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00124
Weather and Climate     
A Monitoring and Predicting Method of Spring Drought in Ningxia of China Based on Graph Recognition Technique
SHAO Jian1,2, HU Wen-dong1 , FENG Jian-min1, YANG You-lin1,2, LI Yan-chun1,2
1.Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Ningxia Institute of Meteorological Science, Yinchuan 750002, China;
2.Ningxia Meteorological Observatory, Yinchuan 750002, China
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Abstract  

Three kinds multi-level atmospheric circulation conceptual model of spring drought in Ningxia were established, and monitoring and predicting quantitative indices were studied based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly data sets, through technology of weather system identification and other graphic analysis methods. And the monitoring and forecasting quantitative indices of Ningxia spring drought were given here. Spring drought in Ningxia occurs under following conditions: (1) East Asia Trough at 500 hPa is over 120—140 °E , and the drought is the most serious when the trough is over 120°-130°E; (2) The whole Central Asia Ridge at 500 hPa is over 60°-100°E, especially when it is near 80°E; (3)The Subtropical High Pressure is in ribbon shape and the west ridge point extends to 110 °E; (4) Southern Air Stream at 850 hPa is weak, and its north side stretches to 27 °N; (5) Dry area occupies more than 45% of the key area (90°-110°E, 30°N to 50°N) at 700 hPa; (6)Downdraft at 500 hPa (700 hPa) occupies more than 75%(60%) of the key area (90°-110°E, 30°-50°N), and the northern Ningxia is controlled by downdraft. Meteorological data analysis showed that spring droughts in Ningxia in 2010 and 2011 were well predicted by weather system identification technology.

Key words:  drought      graph recognition      auto-discrimination      monitoring and predicting method      Ningxia     
Received:  16 November 2012      Published:  23 December 2012
ZTFLH:  P409  

Cite this article: 

SHAO Jian1,2, HU Wen-dong1,FENG Jian-min1, YANG You-lin1,2, LI Yan-chun1,2. A Monitoring and Predicting Method of Spring Drought in Ningxia of China Based on Graph Recognition Technique. JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2013, 33(3): 874-881.

URL: 

http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00124     OR     http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2013/V33/I3/874

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