|
|
|
| The Characteristics of Drought Disasters in Beijing during the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Method |
| Li Yanping, Chen Changchun, Zhang Yuqing, Bi Shuoben |
| School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is a useful tool for nonlinear, non-stationary signal analysis, and it can be applied effectively to analysis of the climate time series. Using the historical data of drought disasters in Beijing during the Ming Dynasty, temporal scales and their trends of the drought disasters were researched with EEMD method, some simple, stable and valid patterns of intrinsic mode function (IMF) were obtained, and we compared IMF of drought disasters series with the drought frequency polynomial fitting curve. Results showed that during the period of Ming Dynasty, there exists inter-annual periods of 2.8 a, 6.3 a, decadal periods of 11.5 a, 26.6 a, 53.6 a and centinnial-scale periods of 118.7 a, 299.5 a. Overall, the drought disasters in Beijing during the Ming Dynasty increased at first and then decreased slightly, and frequency of droughts increased significantly since mid-Ming Dynasty.
|
|
Received: 18 November 2013
Published: 20 May 2014
|
|
|
|
Corresponding Authors:
陈昌春（Email：changchunc@nuist.edu.cn）
E-mail: changchunc@nuist.edu.cn
|
[1] Redmond K T.The depiction of drought:a commentary[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1143-1147.
[2] 汤仲鑫.保定地区近五百年旱涝相对集中区分析[M]//气候变迁和超长期预报文集.北京:科学出版社,1977:45-49.
[3] 张允,赵景波.1644-1911年宁夏西海固干旱灾害时空变化及驱动力分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(5):94-99.
[4] 黄会平.1949-2005年我国干旱灾害若干统计特征[J].气象科技,2008,36(5):551-555.
[5] 李晶,王耀强,屈忠义,等.内蒙古自治区干旱灾害时空分布特征及区划[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(5):267-272.
[6] 江涛,杨奇,张强,等.广东省干旱灾害空间分布特征[J].湖泊科学,2012,24(1):156-160.
[7] 马延东,赵景波.明代固原地区干旱灾害研究[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(2):525-530.
[8] 刘晓云,李栋梁,王劲松.1961-2009年中国区域干旱状况的时空变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(2):473-483.
[9] 石崇,刘晓东.1947-2006年东半球陆地干旱化特征-基于SPEI数据的分析[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(6):1691-1701.
[10] 苏宏新,李广起.基于SPEI的北京低频干旱与气候指数关系[J].生态学报,2012,32(17):5467-5475.
[11] 翟家齐,赵勇,裴源生.北京地区干旱长期演变规律及未来趋势预测[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(3):1-4.
[12] 叶彩华,郭文利.北京旱涝灾害对农业生产的影响及对策[J].北京农业科学,2000,18(1):24-27.
[13] Yang W X,Li H Y,Li Z T,et al.Analysis on vapor field for the drought causes in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei districts in recent years [J].Agricultural Science and Technology,2010,11(1):117-121.
[14] 黄庆旭,何春阳,史培军,等.气候干旱和经济发展双重压力下的北京水资源承载力变化情景研究[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(5):859-870.
[15] 尹钧科,于德源,吴文涛.北京历史自然灾害研究[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1997.
[16] 张德二.中国三千年气象记录总集[M].南京:凤凰出版社/江苏教育出版社,2004.
[17] 温克刚,谢璞.中国气象灾害大典·北京卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[18] Huang N E,Wu Z H.A review on Hilbert-Huang Transform:method and its applications to geophysical studies[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2008,46(2):2006.
[19] 薛嫚.总体平均经验模式分解法的理论研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2007.
[20] Peel M C,Srikanthan R,McMahon T A,et al.Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition of monthly climatic indices relevant to Australian hydro climatology[C].Perth,Australia:19th International Congress on Modeling and Simulation,12–16 December 2011.
[21] 孙银凤,陆宝宏.基于EEMD的南京市降水特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2013,(3):5-9.
[22] 薛春芳,侯威,赵俊虎.集合经验模态分解在区域降水变化多尺度分析及气候变化响应研究中的应用[J].物理学报,2013,62(10):109203.
[23] 朱宁辉,白晓民,董伟杰,等.基于EEMD的谐波检测方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(7):92-98.
[24] 黄大吉,赵进平,苏纪兰,等.希尔伯特-黄变化的端点延拓[J].海洋学报,2003,25(1):1-11.
[25] 封建湖,车刚明,聂玉峰.数值分析原理[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:81-87.
[26] 王兵,李晓东.基于EEMD分解的欧洲温度序列的多尺度分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(4):627-635.
[27] Wu Z,Huang N E.A study of the characteristics of white noise using the empirical mode decomposition method[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences,2004,460:1597-1611.
[28] 北京气象台.北京市近五百年旱涝分析[M]//气候变迁和超长期预报文集.北京:科学出版社,1977.
[29] 高寿仙.明代北京的沙尘天气及其成因[J].北京教育学院学报,2003,17(3):33-37.
[30] 邹逸麟.明清时期北部农牧过渡带的推移和气候寒暖变化[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),1995,(1):26-33.
[31] 蔡文娟,殷淑燕.明清小冰期关中地区冻灾研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(3):118-121. |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
2014, Vol. 34 
