Abstract:

In-depth research on the social-ecological system resilience of desertification reversal areas is crucial for formulating scientific ecological protection policies， consolidating desertification control achievements， and promoting regional sustainable development. This study takes Yanchi County， a typical desertification reversal area in Ningxia of China， as an example. Based on the social-ecological system PSR Model （SES-PSR）， it constructs an evaluation index system for social-ecological resilience. Utilizing the comprehensive index method and obstacle degree model， it explores the changes in resilience and their causes from 2011 to 2021. Additionally， the GM（1，1） and quadratic index smoothing combination prediction model are employed to forecast and analyze resilience for the period of 2022 to 2031. The results indicate that： （1） From 2011 to 2021， the comprehensive index of social-ecological resilience in Yanchi County has steadily increased， with a slight decline in the pressure index， a significant rise in the state index， and a steady improvement in the response index. The socio-economic system has notably strengthened， and the ecological environment has improved. （2） Between 2011 and 2015， the main obstacles affecting social-ecological resilience included arable land area， grazing bans， livestock subsidy policies， and per capita GDP. However， from 2016 to 2021， the primary obstacles shifted to non-agricultural population， natural population growth rate， and afforestation area. （3） In the next decade， the social-ecological resilience of Yanchi County is expected to continue strengthening， with ongoing improvements in socio-economic levels and ecological environments.

Key words: social-ecological ecosystem, resilience, SES-PSR model, obstacle degree, combined forecasting model