| 天气与气候 |
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| Climate Division of Seasonal Precipitation and Their Changing Trend in Xinjiang |
| XIN Yu1, MAO Wei-yi1, LI Yuan-peng1, ZHANG Xin2, LU Ge2, BO Li-jian2 |
| 1.Climate Center of Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China; 2.Meteorological Bureau of Bortala Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture, Bole 833400, Xinjiang, China |
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Abstract Based on the daily precipitation data from 88 meteorological stations during 1961—2006 in Xinjiang, the spatial distribution characteristic of seasonal precipitation, precipitation changing trend and abrupt change were diagnosed by the methods of EOF, REOF, linear trend, Kendall-τ test, cumulative anomaly, student-t test and SNR (Signal-to-Noise). The results show that the first three loading vector fields of EOF could reflect the three whole abnormal anomaly structures of rainfall in each season in Xinjiang, for example, wet or dry in whole region pattern, wet (or dry) in southern Xinjiang and dry (or wet) in northern Xinjiang pattern, wet (or dry) in the west and dry (or wet) in the east pattern. Under a same restriction law, the REOF could obtain different climatic sub-regions of precipitation in different seasons: three sub-regions in winter, six in spring, seven in summer and five in autumn. In most sub-regions of Xinjiang, winter and summer precipitation experienced an outstanding abrupt increase in 1986, except in the west of southern Xinjiang where winter precipitation did not display abrupt increase tendency. The increase in precipitation in winter and summer responded to the increase of atmospheric precipitable water (APW) above relative sub-regions. Neither was there a significant ascending trend nor an abrupt change in spring precipitation in northern Xinjiang, but there was abrupt rise in most of southern Xinjiang although the time of abrupt change was different. As for long-term change, the north of northern Xinjiang, two sides of the Middle Tianshan Mountains and its eastern all showed no obvious increase trend of autumn precipitation except for a sudden increase in 1978, being the earliest in Xinjiang. The west of northern Xinjiang is the most sensitive area to climate change, where the precipitation in winter, summer and autumn all increased remarkably, but the abrupt increase of autumn precipitation happened in 1997, being 11 year later than abrupt changes of winter and summer precipitation, and about 30 years later than that happened in its eastern areas.
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Received: 07 April 2008
Published: 07 September 2009
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2009, Vol. 29 
