Prediction of future drought in the Yellow River Basin based on CMIP6 and remote sensing inversion

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2025.00162

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 66-74.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2025.00162

Prediction of future drought in the Yellow River Basin based on CMIP6 and remote sensing inversion

Chi Wang¹(), Zhengcai Zhang¹, Lanying Han¹^,²(), Lingguang Zhang¹, Zhenyu Zhang¹, Siqi Wang¹, Yunzhu Lei¹, Wenhui Zhang¹, Pan Fang¹, Yufeng Chen¹

^1.School of Geography Science and Tourism，Shaanxi Normal University，Xi'an 710119，China
^2.Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Provin / Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA，Institute of Arid Meteorology，China Meteorological Administration，Lanzhou 730020，China

Received:2025-07-10 Revised:2025-11-03 Online:2026-05-20 Published:2026-06-11
Contact: Lanying Han

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the background of climate warming， droughts are intensifying globally. The Yellow River Basin is a climate-sensitive region in China and one of the areas frequently affected by extreme climate events， and clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought in the Yellow River Basin is of significant theoretical and practical importance for regional environmental improvement. Based on CMIP6 model data and remote sensing inversion data， this study employs the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI）， the remotely sensed Temperature Vegetation Drought Index （TVDI）， the Hurst index， the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis， and the Mann-Kendall test to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought occurrence in the Yellow River Basin and to discuss the future drought extent and trends under climate change. The results indicate that from 2024 to 2100， the Yellow River Basin will experience a cumulative temperature increase of 1.97±0.58 °C and a precipitation increase of 138.99±60.52 mm； drought frequency in the basin shows a decreasing trend， indicating a warm-wet transition； predictions from the Hurst index further suggest that drought evolution exhibits positive persistence； the proportion of drought-affected area in the Yellow River Basin shows a declining trend， with 35.46% of the middle reaches exhibiting a wetting trend， while 21.91% of the northwestern upper reaches and parts of the lower reaches show a drying trend. The research findings can provide scientific support for climate change response and drought risk management in the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: CMIP6, SPEI, TVDI, drought, Yellow River Basin

CLC Number:

P429

Chi Wang, Zhengcai Zhang, Lanying Han, Lingguang Zhang, Zhenyu Zhang, Siqi Wang, Yunzhu Lei, Wenhui Zhang, Pan Fang, Yufeng Chen. Prediction of future drought in the Yellow River Basin based on CMIP6 and remote sensing inversion[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2026, 46(3): 66-74.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1 Distribution of study area and meteorological stations

Fig.2 Changes of mean temperature （A） and annual precipitation （B） in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2100 （ Shadow part is the standard deviation ）， and spatial distribution of temperature （C） and precipitation （D） in the Yellow River Basin from 2024 to 2100

Fig.3 SPEI value from 1960 to 2100 （A） and Spatial distribution of SPEI in 2024-2100 （B）

Table 1 Drought frequency in the Yellow River Basin at different time periods

年份	特旱频率	重旱频率	中旱频率	轻旱频率	干旱总频率
1960—2023	0.02	0.05	0.09	0.16	0.31
2024—2050	0.00	0.04	0.15	0.19	0.37
2051—2075	0.00	0.04	0.08	0.24	0.28
2076—2100	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.04	0.12
2024—2100	0.00	0.03	0.08	0.16	0.27

Fig.4 The proportion of drought area， annual mean change （A） and Average annual spatial distribution of TVDI （B） from 2003 to 2022

Fig.5 Theil-Sen Median change trend distribution （A） and Theil-Sen Median + Mann-Kendall test drought change distribution （B）

Fig.6 The Hurst index distribution （A） of the Yellow River Basin and the trend of TVDI in the future （B）

Table 2 The variation trend of TVDI in the Yellow River Basin in the future

编号	发展变化	未来变化趋势	面积占比/%
1	持续变湿	强持续性变湿	4.11
2	持续变湿	弱持续性变湿	24.01
3	过去变干未来缓解	反弱持续性变干	7.27
4	过去变干未来缓解	反强持续性变干	0.07
5	过去变湿未来变干	反弱持续性变湿	3.18
6	过去变湿未来变干	反强持续性变湿	0.04
7	干旱加剧	弱持续性变干	14.87
8	干旱加剧	强持续性变干	3.82
9	基本不变	基本不变	42.63

Fig.7 Correlation analysis of SPEI index and TVDI index from 2003 to 2022

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Prediction of future drought in the Yellow River Basin based on CMIP6 and remote sensing inversion

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