| 天气与气候 |
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| The Recent 338-year Precipitation Series Reconstructed from Tree-ring in Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains |
| GAO Wei-dong1,2, YUAN Yu-jiang2, ZHANG Rui-bo2, LIU Zhi-hui3 |
| 1.School of Resources and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan 250000, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China; 3.College of Resource and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830000, China |
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Abstract Analysis on correlation between the precipitation data of 9 weather stations and the 21 tree-ring standardization chronologies in northern slope of Tianshan Mountains showed that the correlation was significant between chronologies and the precipitation series from last August to July, with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.612 (P<0.0001). The annual precipitation series in recent 338 years were reconstructed based on five tree-ring standardization chronologies, and the reconstruction equation could explain variance of 60.0%, and statistical test and historical data validation indicated that the equation reconstructed was credible. Analysis of the precipitation series in the recent 338 years showed that the reconstructed precipitation series had 8 wet periods and 8 dry periods. The longest stage of dry years was 1705—1750, the most dry phase was 1960—1989, the most dry years were 1796, 1944 and 1974, and the rainfall was 27% below normal; the longest stage of wet years was 1917—1959, the precipitation of 1690—1904 was most abundant. The reconstructed precipitation series in the recent 338 years had variation period of 2-a, the abrupt changes of precipitation occurred in 1751 and 1958.
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Received: 15 October 2010
Published: 20 November 2011
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2011, Vol. 31 
