| Weather and Climate |
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| Modeling on Winter Snow Accumulation Depth and Its Prediction in the Southern Pastoral Areas of Qinghai |
| SHI Xing-he1,2, LI Lin2, CHEN Xiao-guang3, DAI Sheng2, SHEN Hong-yan2, YANG Yan-hua2, LIU Cai-hong2 |
1.Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China;
2.Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, China;
3.Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Reducing, Xining 810001, China |
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Abstract Through compiling time series of surface snow accumulation depth and snowstorm chronology based on the ground meteorological observation data in the southern pastoral areas of Qinghai from 1961 to 2008, the 74 circulation characteristics factors data and the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height field grid point data, the change trend of snow accumulation depth and snow disaster occurring mechanism were studied. Results showed that there were 16 years snow disasters happening in the study area during 1961-2008, with a frequency of 33.33%. Below 4 450 m altitude, the snow accumulation depth increased along with the increase of altitude, while it decreased with altitude increase above 4 451 m. In typical more snow years, the cold air from the Novaya Zemlya was stronger and the activity of plateau low value system was more significant, so that the cold air from the Novaya Zemlya easily invaded the Southern Qinghai Plateau from the northwest side and converged with the warm and moist air in front of upper-level trough; these physical conditions were benefited for the formation of cloud, resulting in more snowfall and thicker snow accumulation. Whereas, the circulation situation in typical less snow years was in the contrary. Besides, the following factors are also conducive to the low Qinghai-Tibet Plateau height field and the more accumulated winter snow depth in the southern pastoral areas of Qinghai, they are the Polar vortex area in North American is relatively larger, the Eurasia meridional circulation is relatively stronger in October-December, the Eurasia meridional circulation is relatively stronger in October, the number of days with circulation pattern of E-type in Atlantic European is relatively more in November, and the northern boundary of Atlantics subtropical high is relatively more northward in December. A model based on winter snow depth in the southern pastoral areas of Qinghai and these circulation factors has showed high accuracy in forecasting snow accumulation depth in the typical more snow years and the snow change trends since 1993 in the study region.
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Received: 28 October 2011
Published: 18 January 2012
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2012, Vol. 32 
