Response of arboreal forest ecosystem stability to climate change in Qilian Mountain National Park

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2025.00334

Journal of Desert Research ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1): 105-120.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2025.00334

Response of arboreal forest ecosystem stability to climate change in Qilian Mountain National Park

Junwei Chen¹^,²(), Xuexiang Chang¹^,²(), Quanyan Tian¹^,²

^1.Inland River Basin Research Station of China Ecosystem Research Network / Key Laboratory of Eco-Environmental Security and Sustainable Development in Arid Areas，Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China
^2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049，China

Received:2025-11-23 Revised:2025-12-23 Online:2026-01-20 Published:2026-03-09
Contact: Xuexiang Chang

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change has increased the uncertainty of ecosystem stability. As a key ecological barrier in northwestern arid region of China， the Qilian Mountains rely on arboreal forests for water conservation and ecological functioning. Identifying how climate change affects the stability of these forests is essential for adaptive management， safeguarding oasis water resources， and promoting sustainable development. Using Qilian Mountain National Park as the study area， we constructed a Forest Stability Index （FSI） based on Landsat imagery （1987-2021） and high-resolution climate data， and applied wavelet analysis and multiple linear regression to assess spatiotemporal patterns of forest stability and their responses to climate change. Results show that：（1） forest ecosystems were highly stable， with extremely high stability covering 77.25% of the area；（2） from 1991 to 2021， temperature and precipitation increased by 0.024 ℃ and 7.32 mm annually， while FSI rose significantly at 0.027 per year；（3） warming was positively associated with stability （FSI increase of 0.09-0.30 per ℃）， precipitation generally had positive effects （0.15-0.68 per 1 000 mm） but was negative in Unit I （-0.26 per 1 000 mm）， and the climate elasticity index （CE） showed negative effects， with each 0.10 increase reducing FSI by 1.00-1.75.

Key words: ecosystem stability, climate change, arboreal forest ecosystem, spatial heterogeneity, Qilian Mountain National Park

CLC Number:

Q945

Junwei Chen, Xuexiang Chang, Quanyan Tian. Response of arboreal forest ecosystem stability to climate change in Qilian Mountain National Park[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2026, 46(1): 105-120.

Figures/Tables 12

References 73

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稳定性等级	FSI 范围	CV 范围
极高稳定性	FSI≥2.0	CV≤e^-2.0≈0.135
高稳定性	1.5≤FSI<2.0	0.135<CV≤e^-1.5≈0.223
中等稳定性	1.0≤FSI<1.5	0.223<CV≤e^-1.0≈0.368
较低稳定性	0.5≤FSI<1.0	0.368<CV≤e^-0.5≈0.607
极低稳定性	FSI<0.5	CV>e^-0.5≈0.607

稳定性等级	FSI 范围	CV 范围
极高稳定性	FSI≥2.0	CV≤e^-2.0≈0.135
高稳定性	1.5≤FSI<2.0	0.135<CV≤e^-1.5≈0.223
中等稳定性	1.0≤FSI<1.5	0.223<CV≤e^-1.0≈0.368
较低稳定性	0.5≤FSI<1.0	0.368<CV≤e^-0.5≈0.607
极低稳定性	FSI<0.5	CV>e^-0.5≈0.607

分析单元	分析单元面积/km²	乔木林			景观多样性
分析单元	分析单元面积/km²	面积/km²	覆盖率/%	面积占比/%	香农多样性指数	辛普森多样性指数	香农均匀度	平均形状指数	平均斑块周长/km	边界密度/(km·km^-2)	乔木林斑块数/个	乔木林斑块密度/(个·km^-2)	平均斑块面积/km²	最大斑块指数/%	平均最近邻距离/km	平均连续度指数
合计	9 509.93	1 652.25	17.37	100.00	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ⅰ	1 774.07	287.41	16.20	17.40	1.34	0.68	0.61	1.75	2.22	2.85	2 341	1.32	0.12	21.23	0.15	0.58
Ⅱ	789.82	172.01	21.78	10.41	1.37	0.69	0.66	1.81	2.28	4.07	1 453	1.84	0.12	9.79	0.13	0.57
Ⅲ	178.67	52.82	29.57	3.20	1.25	0.66	0.64	1.84	3.35	4.68	256	1.43	0.20	35.03	0.13	0.59
Ⅳ	1 141.45	190.34	16.68	11.52	1.19	0.60	0.57	1.77	2.13	3.41	1 808	1.58	0.10	11.59	0.13	0.58
Ⅴ	323.31	41.79	12.92	2.53	1.26	0.64	0.60	1.80	2.06	2.77	435	1.35	0.09	9.27	0.17	0.60
Ⅵ	258.03	23.68	9.18	1.43	0.90	0.44	0.43	1.64	1.51	1.73	301	1.17	0.08	12.76	0.18	0.59
Ⅶ	3 626.77	795.94	21.95	48.17	1.34	0.70	0.61	1.77	2.55	3.30	4 865	1.34	0.16	15.63	0.13	0.57
Ⅷ	1 417.81	88.27	6.23	5.34	1.22	0.65	0.56	1.69	1.39	1.55	1 651	1.16	0.05	3.53	0.17	0.57

分析单元	分析单元面积/km²	乔木林			景观多样性
分析单元	分析单元面积/km²	面积/km²	覆盖率/%	面积占比/%	香农多样性指数	辛普森多样性指数	香农均匀度	平均形状指数	平均斑块周长/km	边界密度/(km·km^-2)	乔木林斑块数/个	乔木林斑块密度/(个·km^-2)	平均斑块面积/km²	最大斑块指数/%	平均最近邻距离/km	平均连续度指数
合计	9 509.93	1 652.25	17.37	100.00	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ⅰ	1 774.07	287.41	16.20	17.40	1.34	0.68	0.61	1.75	2.22	2.85	2 341	1.32	0.12	21.23	0.15	0.58
Ⅱ	789.82	172.01	21.78	10.41	1.37	0.69	0.66	1.81	2.28	4.07	1 453	1.84	0.12	9.79	0.13	0.57
Ⅲ	178.67	52.82	29.57	3.20	1.25	0.66	0.64	1.84	3.35	4.68	256	1.43	0.20	35.03	0.13	0.59
Ⅳ	1 141.45	190.34	16.68	11.52	1.19	0.60	0.57	1.77	2.13	3.41	1 808	1.58	0.10	11.59	0.13	0.58
Ⅴ	323.31	41.79	12.92	2.53	1.26	0.64	0.60	1.80	2.06	2.77	435	1.35	0.09	9.27	0.17	0.60
Ⅵ	258.03	23.68	9.18	1.43	0.90	0.44	0.43	1.64	1.51	1.73	301	1.17	0.08	12.76	0.18	0.59
Ⅶ	3 626.77	795.94	21.95	48.17	1.34	0.70	0.61	1.77	2.55	3.30	4 865	1.34	0.16	15.63	0.13	0.57
Ⅷ	1 417.81	88.27	6.23	5.34	1.22	0.65	0.56	1.69	1.39	1.55	1 651	1.16	0.05	3.53	0.17	0.57

分析单元	气温变化速率/(℃·a⁻¹)	气温标准差/℃	降水变化速率/(mm·a⁻¹)	降水标准差/mm
Ⅰ	0.016	0.40	6.88	116.46
Ⅱ	0.033	0.47	9.76	187.85
Ⅲ	0.036	0.51	7.70	145.90
Ⅳ	0.035	0.50	7.48	131.52
Ⅴ	0.032	0.47	2.91	76.45
Ⅵ	0.028	0.42	6.47	96.07
Ⅶ	0.016	0.35	5.53	103.75
Ⅷ	0.015	0.42	8.62	152.68
乔木林区	0.024	0.42	7.32	135.68
全区	0.0036	0.10	1.43	27.67

Response of arboreal forest ecosystem stability to climate change in Qilian Mountain National Park

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分析单元	极高稳定性		高稳定性		中等稳定性		较低稳定性		极低稳定性		合计
分析单元	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
Ⅰ	278.90	97.04	8.16	2.84	0.26	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.00	0.00	287.41	17.40
Ⅱ	157.89	91.79	14.02	8.15	0.10	0.06	0.00	0.0	0.00	0.00	172.01	10.41
Ⅲ	50.34	95.31	2.47	4.67	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.0	0.00	0.00	52.82	3.20
Ⅳ	168.11	88.32	22.10	11.61	0.11	0.06	0.00	0.0	0.00	0.00	190.34	11.52
Ⅴ	35.51	84.97	6.24	14.93	0.04	0.10	0.00	0.0	0.00	0.00	41.79	2.53
Ⅵ	14.29	60.36	8.85	37.37	0.54	2.27	0.00	0.0	0.00	0.00	23.68	1.43
Ⅶ	529.46	66.52	253.83	31.89	12.50	1.57	0.16	0.02	0.00	0.00	795.94	48.17
Ⅷ	34.01	38.53	42.89	48.59	11.34	12.85	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	88.27	5.34
全区	1 276.36	77.25	347.14	21.01	28.58	1.73	0.33	0.02	0.00	0.00	1 652.25	100.00

分析单元	气温			降水			气候弹性指数			R²
分析单元	回归系数	FSI变化量/℃	R²	回归系数	FSI变化量 /1000 mm	R²	系数	FSI变化量/0.10 CE	R²	R²
Ⅰ	0.12	0.30	0.11	-0.03	-0.26	0.10	-0.31	-1.25	0.39	0.52
Ⅱ	0.11	0.23	0.10	0.04	0.21	0.09	-0.27	-1.15	0.33	0.49
Ⅲ	0.12	0.24	0.13	0.04	0.27	0.07	-0.31	-1.00	0.43	0.56
Ⅳ	0.09	0.18	0.09	0.02	0.15	0.07	-0.32	-1.10	0.44	0.53
Ⅴ	0.07	0.15	0.09	0.02	0.26	0.04	-0.28	-1.35	0.43	0.50
Ⅵ	0.07	0.17	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.07	-0.31	-1.15	0.38	0.46
Ⅶ	0.03	0.09	0.05	0.07	0.68	0.08	-0.34	-1.75	0.47	0.54
Ⅷ	0.04	0.10	0.05	0.03	0.20	0.05	-0.25	-1.40	0.33	0.41

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