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JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH  2009, Vol. 29 Issue (1): 68-75    DOI:
沙漠与沙漠化     
Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Oasis Land Use Spatial Pattern at Town-Scale

YIN Chang-ying1,2, LUO Ge-ping1, TANG Fa-shu1,2

1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi Xinjiang 830011, China; 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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Abstract  

Taking Sangong river oasis in Xinjiang as the study area, and considering the history of land-use change process and its major human driving factors such as population, economy, technology and markets, we have designed three socio-economic development modes, which are named as reference, economic, and ecological, to simulate land-use demands of the area in the future. Then, we use the CLUE-S model to simulate the spatial evolution of land-use patterns of the local area and the corps area bases on the land use quantity demands. The results show that: the ROC coefficients of Logistic regression of the two areas are greater than 0.7; all Kappa coefficient is greater than 0.8 when the grid scales is 40 m×40 m, except it is 0.75 of local area in 1998. It means that the CLUE-S model can simulate land-use change process at township scale effectively, and its replace probability of land use are reasonable, and the spatial dynamic simulation of the different demands are efficacious, it can be used to supervise sustainable use of land resources and as a decision-making reference for planning.

Key words:  Sangong river basin      oasis      the CLUE-S model      land use change      spatial simulation     
Received:  24 September 2007      Published:  20 January 2009
ZTFLH:  F323.211  
Articles by authors
YIN Chang-ying
LUO Ge-ping
TANG Fa-shu

Cite this article: 

YIN Chang-ying;LUO Ge-ping;TANG Fa-shu;. Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Oasis Land Use Spatial Pattern at Town-Scale . JOURNAL OF DESERT RESEARCH, 2009, 29(1): 68-75.

URL: 

http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/     OR     http://www.desert.ac.cn/EN/Y2009/V29/I1/68

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